Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
“The Pitt” (HBO/Max)
Courtesy of Max
Outstanding Drama Series Commentary (Updated March 27, 2025): As Emmy season kicks into gear, the field of contenders is beginning to take shape. This year’s lineup includes a dynamic mix of breakout newcomers, critically acclaimed returning series, and nostalgic standouts that harken back to television’s golden age.
Apple TV+’s “Severance” is leading the pack, which is riding high on the success of its highly entertaining second season. Apple’s momentum continues as the streamer looks to replicate last year’s awards buzz for “Slow Horses,” with Gary Oldman once again in top form.
Over at HBO/Max, the sophomore season of “The Last of Us” is generating intense anticipation for Pedro Pascal and Bella Ramsey. In contrast, the airing of the third season of “The White Lotus” continues to deliver compelling performances and high production value, but will it hit the same as its last go-round? Nonetheless, both are expected to be formidable contenders.
Netflix enters the race with a heavy-hitting lineup, including the return of international phenomenon “Squid Game” and the political thriller “The Diplomat,” both positioned for strong showings.
Meanwhile, this year’s freshman TV class brings new energy to the awards conversation. HBO/Max’s procedural drama “The Pitt” with the dynamic Noah Wyle and Hulu’s vibrant drama “Paradise” with Sterling K. Brown are poised to stand out by offering fresh styles to embrace.
(The list of predicted nominees and contenders is incomplete and will be updated every Thursday throughout the TV Awards season.)
And the Predicted Contenders Are:
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2024 category winner: “Shogun” (FX) — Season 1 — Justin Marks, Michaela Clavell, Edward L. McDonnell, Michael De Luca and Rachel Kondo, executive producers; Shannon Goss, Andrew Macdonald, Allon Reich and Jamie Vega Wheeler, co-executive producers; Hiroyuki Sanada and Eriko Miyagawa, producers; Erin Smith, produced by; Matt Lambert, consulting producer
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About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, commonly known as the Emmys, are awarded by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Established in 1949, these celebrate outstanding achievements in American primetime television. The Emmys are categorized into three divisions: the Primetime Emmy Awards for performance and production excellence; the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards, recognizing achievements in artistry and craftsmanship; and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards, which honor significant engineering and technological advancements. The eligibility period typically extends from June 1 to May 31 each year. The Television Academy hosts the Emmys and has over 20,000 members across 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans and executives.
