Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Colin Farrell as The Penguin
Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series Commentary (Updated March 27, 2025): For months, the Limited or Anthology Series race looked like a Gotham City stroll: dark, moody, and all but owned by HBO/Max’s “The Penguin.” The “Batman” spinoff, starring award-winning darling Colin Farrell as the crime boss, came onto the scene with high expectations and even higher production value. It was the early frontrunner in the category — until Netflix decided to drop a story about a troubled teenager.
Enter “Adolescence,” a taut, disturbing crime thriller that premiered with the same kind of overnight buzz that propelled last year’s “Baby Reindeer” from niche to juggernaut. Created by actor and writer Stephen Graham, “Adolescence” is already being dissected on TikTok, debated in thinkpieces and, yes, is undoubtedly Emmy bait. Its gritty realism, psychological depth and one-camera-shot feat could make it the breakout spoiler no one saw coming.
Of course, this category isn’t just a two-horse race at this early stage. Apple’s “Disclaimer,” directed by Alfonso Cuarón and starring Cate Blanchett, oozes prestige. Expect voters to notice, even if its meditative pace may test viewers’ patience.
And then there’s Netflix again, flexing its true-crime muscle with “Monsters: The Erik and Lyle Menendez Story,” the follow-up to the divisive but undeniably buzzworthy “Dahmer.” True crime continues to be Emmy catnip, and if the show lands with audiences the way “Dahmer” did, it could pull in major nominations.
And get ready for FX’s “Dying for Sex” with Michelle Williams to shake up the landscape as well.
One notable observation is how thin the field seems to be in terms of volume. We’re currently tracking only 29 series, which is a long way from the minimum 80 requirement that would trigger six nominees in the category.
(The list of predicted nominees and contenders is incomplete and will be updated every Thursday throughout the TV Awards season.)
And the Predicted Contenders Are:
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More Information (Limited/Anthology)
2024 category winner: “Baby Reindeer” (Netflix) — Richard Gadd, Wim De Greef, Petra Fried, Matt Jarvis and Ed Macdonald, executive producers; Matthew Mulot, producer
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About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, commonly known as the Emmys, are awarded by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Established in 1949, these celebrate outstanding achievements in American primetime television. The Emmys are categorized into three divisions: the Primetime Emmy Awards for performance and production excellence; the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards, recognizing achievements in artistry and craftsmanship; and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards, which honor significant engineering and technological advancements. The eligibility period typically extends from June 1 to May 31 each year. The Television Academy hosts the Emmys and has over 20,000 members across 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans and executives.
