Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Sam Rockwell in ‘The White Lotus’
HBO/Max
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series Commentary (Updated March 31, 2025): Ensemble-heavy series look to dominate the supporting drama actor category this year.
Walton Goggins takes a commanding lead with his darkly comic and layered turn in HBO/Max’s “The White Lotus,” a performance that blends satire and tragedy in a way only he can. Likely to join him is Oscar winner Sam Rockwell, whose viral monologue added to the unpredictability of the resort drama’s latest installment. Jason Isaacs and Patrick Schwarzenegger also deliver standout work in Mike White’s series, along with memorable moments from Sam Nivola and Tayme Thapthimthong. While the show has already picked up multiple Emmys, including acting trophies in previous seasons, this year’s crowded supporting category could easily yield several nominations again.
Apple TV+ continues its awards push with “Severance,” which boasts three strong contenders: John Turturro, a past Emmy winner for “The Night Of,” whose understated emotional arc continues to deepen; Tramell Tillman, whose chilling performance as Milchick adds new layers of corporate menace; and Zach Cherry, whose dry wit and subtle tonal shifts offer a crucial emotional counterbalance. The series, which earned 14 Emmy nominations in 2022, remains a favorite among critics and voters. Its ensemble cast continues to be one of television’s most cohesive and compelling.
Meanwhile, Jeffrey Wright could make a strong impression in the second season of “The Last of Us,” marking his return to the Emmy conversation after his acclaimed run in “Westworld.” But the question remains: Will he appear in enough episodes, or could this season give Gabriel Luna a more profound arc instead?
Recently, Emmy nominee Jack Lowden earned attention for his work in “Slow Horses” during the third season, and he is, at the latest, delivering another quiet but compelling turn.
Rounding out the field is James Marsden, coming off last year’s surprise Emmy nomination for “Jury Duty,” who shifts gears with a dramatic turn in Hulu’s “Paradise.”
There will be many rises and falls throughout the coming weeks of the race.
(The list of predicted nominees and contenders is incomplete and will be updated every Thursday throughout the TV Awards season.)
And the Predicted Contenders Are:
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More Information (Supporting Actor Drama)
2024 category winner: Billy Crudup, “The Morning Show” (Apple TV+) — Season 3
Christopher Polk
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About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, commonly known as the Emmys, are awarded by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Established in 1949, these celebrate outstanding achievements in American primetime television. The Emmys are categorized into three divisions: the Primetime Emmy Awards for performance and production excellence; the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards, recognizing achievements in artistry and craftsmanship; and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards, which honor significant engineering and technological advancements. The eligibility period typically extends from June 1 to May 31 each year. The Television Academy hosts the Emmys and has over 20,000 members across 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans and executives.
