Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Morgan Wallen at the close of “Saturday Night Live”
NBC
Outstanding Talk Series/Scripted Variety Commentary (Updated May 5, 2025): The talk series and scripted variety races at the Emmys are still undergoing a period of evolution.
Following a successful petition in 2024, the spicy chicken wing YouTube interview series “Hot Ones,” hosted by Sean Evans, will now compete in the Outstanding Talk Series category. To date, Evans has hosted more than 360 episodes, and consumed more than 3,000 wings. The size of the audience the show pulls in on YouTube rivals that of the highest-rated late night shows on TV. The most popular “Hot Ones” episodes in the past year have featured “Deadpool & Wolverine” co-stars Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman, Conan O’Brien, Jenna Ortega — and Donald Duck, in a bit sponsored by Disney.
Netflix’s “Everybody’s Live with John Mulaney,” which evolved from his earlier show “Everybody Loves L.A.,” is also entering the same category. The Emmy-winning stand-up comedian celebrates the quirks and unique personality of his beloved city, and other random bits going on. Alongside his witty sidekick Richard Kind (a possible contender for guest comedy actor for Hulu’s “Mid-Century Modern”) and the very efficient Saymo, the robot delivery cart, Mulaney’s ’70s-inspired talk back is the latest to shake up the category, devoid of an agreed-upon frontrunner.
Meanwhile, indie streamer Dropout has revealed its 2025 Emmy submissions and is making a bold entrance into the field. Its improv-based interview show “Very Important People,” hosted by comedian Vic Michaelis, has been submitted in the talk series space, after aging out of the short form category due to its extended runtime. It will compete against major network players such as NBC’s “Late Night with Seth Meyers,” ABC’s “Jimmy Kimmel Live!,” CBS’ “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert,” and Comedy Central’s “The Daily Show,” last year’s winner in the category.
These developments have added more complexity to the long-standing confusion between Outstanding Talk Series and Outstanding Scripted Variety Series — a dilemma the Television Academy has yet to fully resolve.
In December 2022, the Academy redefined the two categories in an effort to improve clarity. Outstanding Talk Series now includes programs centered on unscripted interviews or panel discussions between hosts and guests. In contrast, Outstanding Scripted Variety Series includes shows that are primarily scripted or loosely improvised, featuring discrete segments such as sketches, monologues, musical performances and stand-up routines.
Still, the reclassifications haven’t eliminated the uncertainty.
In 2024, 14 talk series were submitted, down from 19 in 2023. As of now, Variety is tracking 13 confirmed entries. Under Emmy rules, a field of that size would yield only three nominees (four if they elect to round up).
Meanwhile, the Outstanding Scripted Variety Series category continues to shrink. After receiving 12 submissions in 2023, the field appears poised to repeat of the mere four submissions we saw in 2024. This year would include NBC’s “Saturday Night Live,” HBO/Max’s “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver,” and the now-canceled “After Midnight” and “It’s Florida, Man.” If no additional shows are submitted, the category would trigger an “opt-in” jury process for eligible voters.
Per Emmy rules, when a category has fewer than seven submissions, entries must undergo a peer-group screening and receive 90% approval to be nominated. However, there is currently no peer group for scripted variety. If no submission reaches the 90% threshold, the entry with the highest approval receives the nomination by default. This process played out last year, resulting in nominations for “Saturday Night Live” and eventual winner John Oliver.
Emmy submissions are due Thursday, May 8. The nomination voting window runs from June 12 to June 23, with official nominations set to be announced in July.
See Emmy Award predictions below:
Variety Awards Circuit: Emmys
(The list of predicted nominees and contenders is incomplete and will be updated every Thursday throughout the TV Awards season.)
Talk Series
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Scripted Variety Series
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