Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Adam Scott in “Severance.”
Apple TV Plus
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series Commentary (Updated March 27, 2025): The Emmy race for lead actor in a drama series is rich with talent, but a late-season surge has thrust Noah Wyle into the spotlight for his powerhouse turn in the HBO/Max procedural drama “The Pitt.” Episode 13 delivered a revelatory turn from Wyle, showcasing his finest acting moments of his career thus far, blending introspection with moral complexity and responsibility. It’s a career-defining episode with audiences (and surely Emmy voters) taking renewed notice. “John Carter” from “ER” has come so far.
Wyle is no stranger to Emmy recognition. He received five nominations for his portrayal of Dr. John Carter on “ER,” a role that helped define prestige network television in the late ’90s and early 2000s. While his post-“ER” career has included solid work across genres, “The Pitt” marks a return to form, elevating him as both a writer and producer, in a stunning ensemble. His character’s arc, which encompasses equal parts of a redemption story and slow-burning unraveling, feels tailor-made for awards consideration.
Still, the field is stacked with formidable contenders. Adam Scott continues to impress in Apple’s “Severance,” especially with his “Innie” and “Outie” self-conversation. Gary Oldman brings unpredictable brilliance to another Apple drama, “Slow Horses,” while Pedro Pascal’s portrayal in HBO’s “The Last of Us” is still a fan and critic favorite.
Sterling K. Brown brings gravitas to Hulu’s “Paradise,” and Eddie Redmayne’s chilling transformation in Peacock’s “The Day of the Jackal” adds cinematic weight to the race.
(The list of predicted nominees and contenders is incomplete and will be updated every Thursday throughout the TV Awards season.)
And the Predicted Contenders Are:
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More Information (Lead Actor Drama)
2024 category winner: Hiroyuki Sanada, “Shogun” (FX) — Season 1
Christopher Polk
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About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, commonly known as the Emmys, are awarded by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Established in 1949, these celebrate outstanding achievements in American primetime television. The Emmys are categorized into three divisions: the Primetime Emmy Awards for performance and production excellence; the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards, recognizing achievements in artistry and craftsmanship; and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards, which honor significant engineering and technological advancements. The eligibility period typically extends from June 1 to May 31 each year. The Television Academy hosts the Emmys and has over 20,000 members across 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans and executives.
