Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2025 Oscars Predictions: All Categories
Emilia Perez
Netflix
Weekly Commentary (Updated Nov. 14, 2024): It’s time to get serious… but not too serious.
The presidential election may have cast a shadow over awards season, but Hollywood’s engine for accolades and recognition is churning, undeterred. The fall film festivals have concluded, debuting a cascade of Oscar contenders that now march toward the voting booths as phase one unfolds. With only two weeks to go until the first prominent critics’ awards are handed out, anticipation is building. Influential groups such as the New York and L.A. Film Critics, the National Board of Review, and the Gotham Awards will soon weigh in, offering early hints about potential frontrunners and surprises.
Among this year’s most celebrated entries, Sean Baker’s dramedy “Anora” has garnered nearly universal acclaim. The film has enjoyed a slow and deliberate rollout since it took home the Palme d’Or in May. Despite its restrained release strategy, opening on just six screens over the Oct. 18 weekend, “Anora” managed to gross an impressive $550,000 in its first weekend, accumulating $7.6 million. This strategy of patience and word-of-mouth appears to be paying off, positioning “Anora” as a steady and unmissable contender as the season heats up.
Meanwhile, Hollywood’s high-octane blockbuster offerings, Ridley Scott’s “Gladiator II” and Jon M. Chu’s “Wicked,” are set to make significant box-office splashes. These consumer-friendly releases have the potential to draw broad audiences, boosting Oscar ratings while appealing to the Academy’s broader voting base. The scale and spectacle of both films make them early frontrunners in a race that could see the Academy embracing blockbuster titles, especially those with the power to bring a cinematic spark to the awards ceremony itself.
On the other end of the spectrum are more unconventional offerings. Jacques Audiard’s Spanish-language musical, “Emilia Pérez,” and Brady Corbet’s historical epic, “The Brutalist,” have stirred some division among festivalgoers. Still, their ambitious scope and thematic relevance have captured the industry’s attention. Acquired by streaming giants Netflix and A24, these films have the backing to make substantial Academy runs. “Emilia Pérez” and “The Brutalist” offer innovative narratives and lush, sprawling cinematography that speak to our complex, post-Trump era, reflecting a world in flux. Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune: Part Two” similarly fits this mold, bringing audiences deeper into its futuristic world while adding emotional heft to the franchise’s sweeping visuals. This highly anticipated sequel from Villeneuve, known for his cinematic precision, is likely to feature prominently in technical categories if not Best Picture.
Edward Berger’s religious thriller “Conclave” makes quiet but impactful strides. With a story that deftly navigates themes of faith, power, and secrecy, “Conclave” may gain traction under the Academy’s preferential ballot system, where films with a devoted fanbase can edge out the competition. The film’s awards prospects are bolstered by standout performances from Ralph Fiennes and Isabella Rossellini, who could find themselves in acting races. With a front-running adapted screenplay in the mix, “Conclave” could mark a milestone for Focus Features, which has yet to claim a Best Picture win.
As this year’s Oscar race unfolds, these early contenders — dramatic, bombastic or unconventional — offer a glimpse into an industry that balances audience appeal with artistry. With the year-end eligibility and January voting period fast approaching, the stakes are high, but in a fun way. Let’s not take all this too seriously nowadays.
Read: You can see all Academy Award predictions in all 23 categories on one page on the Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars.
The latest updates to the Oscar predictions are below.
Top 4 projected nomination leaders (films): TBA
Top 4 projected nomination leaders (studios): TBA
The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.
*** = PREDICTED WINNER(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)
Best Picture
Director
Jacques Audiard “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)Sean Baker ***“Anora” (Neon)Edward Berger“Conclave” (Focus Features)Brady Corbet“The Brutalist” (A24)Ridley Scott “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Actor
Adrien Brody “The Brutalist” (A24)Timothée Chalamet“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)Daniel Craig“Queer” (A24)Colman Domingo “Sing Sing” (A24) Ralph Fiennes ***“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Actress
Cynthia Erivo“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)Karla Sofía Gascón “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)Angelina Jolie “Maria” (Netflix)Mikey Madison ***“Anora” (Neon)Tilda Swinton“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov“Anora” (Neon)Kieran Culkin“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)Clarence Maclin“Sing Sing” (A24)Guy Pearce“The Brutalist” (A24)Denzel Washington ***“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Supporting Actress
Danielle Deadwyler “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix) Ariana Grande “Wicked” (Universal Pictures)Saoirse Ronan ***“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)Isabella Rossellini“Conclave” (Focus Features)Zoe Saldaña “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Original Screenplay
“Anora” (Neon) ***Sean Baker“The Brutalist” (A24) Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)Jesse Eisenberg“The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Neon) Mohammad Rasoulof“September 5” (Paramount Pictures)Moritz Binder, Alex David, Tim Fehlbaum
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Adapted Screenplay
“Conclave” (Focus Features) ***Peter Straughan“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) Jacques Audiard“I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics) Murilo Hauser, Heitor Lorega “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)Pedro Almodóvar“Sing Sing” (A24) Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Animated Feature
“Flow” (Janus Films and Sideshow)Gints Zilbalodis, Matīss Kaža, Ron Dyens, Gregory Zalcman“Inside Out 2” (Pixar) Kelsey Mann, Mark Nielsen“Memoir of a Snail” (IFC Films)Adam Elliot, Liz Kearney“Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl” (Netflix)Nick Park, Merlin Crossingham“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) ***Chris Sanders, Jeff Hermann
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Production Design
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films) Adam Stockhausen, Anna Pinnock “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) Patrice Vermette, Zsuzsanna Sipos “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) Arthur Max, Elli Griff “Nosferatu” (Focus Features)Craig Lathrop, Beatrice Brentnerova“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) ***Nathan Crowley
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Cinematography
“Conclave” (Focus Features)Stéphane Fontaine“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***Greig Fraser “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) John Mathieson“Maria” (Netflix)Edward Lachman“Nosferatu” (Focus Features)Jarin Blaschke
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Costume Design
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) Jacqueline West “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)Janty Yates“Maria” (Netflix)Massimo Cantini Parrini“Nosferatu” (Focus Features)Linda Muir“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) ***Paul Tazewell
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Film Editing
“The Brutalist” (A24) ***Dávid Jancsó“Conclave” (Focus Features)Nick Emerson“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)Joe Walker“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) Juliette Welfling“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)Myron Kerstein
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Makeup and Hairstyling
“A Different Man” (A24)“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***“Nosferatu” (Focus Features)“The Substance” (Mubi)“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
Sound
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) ***“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
Visual Effects
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga” (Warner Bros.)“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) ***“Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” (20th Century Studios) “Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
Original Score
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)Hans Zimmer“The Brutalist” (A24) ***Daniel Blumberg“Conclave” (Focus Features)Volker Bertlemann“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics) Alberto Iglesias“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) Kris Bowers
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Original Song
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films) “Winter Coat” by Nicholas Britell, Steve McQueen, and Taura Stinson“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) “El Mal” by Clément Ducol, Camille and Jacques Audiard“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) ***“Mi Camino” by Clément Ducol and Camille “Piece by Piece” (Focus Features) “Piece by Piece” by Pharrell Williams“Will & Harper” (Netflix) “Harper and Will Go West” by Sean Douglas, Kristen Wiig, Josh Greenbaum
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Documentary Feature
“Dahomey” (Mubi)dir. Mati Diop“Daughters” (Netflix) ***dir. Angela Patton, Natalie Rae “No Other Land” (ImmerGuteFilme)dirs. Yuval Abraham, Basel Adra, Hamdan Ballal, Rachel Szor, Fabien Greenberg, Bård Kjøge Rønning“Sugarcane” (National Geographic Documentary Films) dir. Julian Brave NoiseCat, Emily Kassie “Will & Harper” (Netflix)dir. Josh Greenbaum
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
International Feature
“Dahomey” from Senegal (Mubi)dir. Mati Diop“Emilia Pérez” from France (Netflix) ***dir. Jacques Audiard“Kneecap” from Ireland (Sony Pictures Classics)dir. Rich Peppiatt“I’m Still Here” from Brazil (Sony Pictures Classics)dir. Walter Salles“The Seed of the Sacred Fig” from Germany (Neon)dir. Mohammad Rasoulof
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
More Information (All Categories)
2024-2025 Oscars Calendar and Timeline – Full awards season calendar here
Eligibility period: Jan. 1, 2024 – Dec. 31, 2024
General entry, best picture, RAISE submission deadline: Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024
Governors Awards: Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024
Preliminary voting begins Monday, Dec. 9, 2024, at 9 a.m. PT.
Preliminary voting ends Friday, Dec. 13, 2024, at 5 p.m. PT.
Oscar Shortlists Announcement: Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024
Eligibility period ends: Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024
Nominations voting begins Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT.
Nominations voting ends Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT.
Oscar Nominations Announcement: Friday, Jan. 17, 2025
Oscar Nominees Luncheon: Monday, Feb. 10, 2025
Final voting begins Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT
Final voting ends: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT
Scientific and Technical Awards: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025
97th Oscars: Sunday, March 2, 2025
Oscars Prediction Categories
About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Nineteen branches are represented within the nearly 11,000-person membership. The branches are actors, animators, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films, sound, visual effects and writers.
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