Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
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2025 Oscars Predictions:Best Picture
Neon
Weekly Commentary (Updated Nov. 14, 2024): Neon’s “Anora,” written and directed by Sean Baker, has topped the charts for the first time, building momentum as it garners near-universal acclaim from critics and audiences alike. With its sensitive portrayal of contemporary struggles, “Anora” has transcended the art-house niche, becoming one of the season’s most talked-about films. Its carefully paced release strategy and glowing word-of-mouth have placed it at the forefront of this year’s Oscar race, marking a potential high point in Baker’s career.
Universal Pictures, last season’s dominant studio, led by the success of Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer,” appears poised for another powerful award run with Jon M. Chu’s “Wicked.” Set to dominate the Thanksgiving weekend box office, “Wicked” is already stirring excitement. With stars Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande leading the cast, this adaptation has drawn attention for its lush visuals, iconic songs, and nostalgia, which could make it a box-office smash and a strong Oscar contender in major categories.
Interestingly, as “Wicked” stands next to another musical contender, “Emilia Perez” from Jacques Audiard, if both were to be nominated for best picture, it would be the first time since 1968’s “Funny Girl” and “Oliver” that two movies from the genre have made the cut.
Paramount Pictures’ “Gladiator II” has also made an impact, albeit with a more mixed critical reception. The film currently holds a respectable 77% on Rotten Tomatoes and a Metascore of 67, suggesting a solid, if not universally raved-about, response. History shows, however, that such scores don’t necessarily hinder a film’s awards prospects. Both James Cameron’s “Avatar: The Way of Water” and the original “Gladiator” held similar Metascores, with “Gladiator” ultimately winning Best Picture. The first “Joker” (2019) scored 68% on Rotten Tomatoes and 59 on Metacritic but led the Oscar nominations with 11 nods. Likewise, Peter Farrelly’s “Green Book,” a divisive Best Picture winner, held a 77% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 69 on Metacritic. Ultimately, critics’ reviews don’t always dictate a film’s Oscar fate, just as high praise doesn’t guarantee a nomination. Films like Debra Granik’s “Leave No Trace” (2018) and Remi Weekes’ “His House” (2020), both members of the 100% Rotten Tomatoes club, received critical acclaim but were overlooked by the Academy.
This weekend, the annual Governors Awards will offer this year’s contenders a prime opportunity to rub elbows with Academy members and industry heavyweights while celebrating cinematic veterans. Among those honored will be the late Quincy Jones, the first Black producer ever nominated for Best Picture, and legendary casting director Juliet Taylor, both of whom will receive honorary Oscars. The Jean Hersholt Humanitarian Award will go to screenwriter and director Richard Curtis, whose work in philanthropy and film has left a lasting impact. James Bond producers Michael G. Wilson and Barbara Broccoli will be presented with the Irving G. Thalberg Memorial Award for their exceptional contributions to producing.
Below are the updated rankings of contenders. The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. The full rankings are below. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited producers are not final and are subject to change.
** denotes the film is not yet dated or can open in 2025.
Read: You can see all Academy Award predictions in all 23 categories on one page on the Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars.
RankFilm1“Anora” (Neon)Sean Baker, Alex Coco, Samantha Quan2“Conclave” (Focus Features)Alice Dawson, Robert Harris, Juliette Howell, Michael Jackman, Tessa Ross3“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) Jacques Audiard, Pascal Caucheteux, Valérie Schermann, Anthony Vacarello4“The Brutalist” (A24)Nick Gordon, D.J. Gugenheim, Andrew Lauren, Trevor Matthews, Andrew Morrison, Brian Young5“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)Lucy Fisher, David Franzoni, Michael Pruss, Ridley Scott, Douglas Wick6“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)Marc Platt, David Stone7“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe, Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve 8“Blitz” (Apple Original Films) Steve McQueen, Arnon Milchan, Yariv Milchan, Eric Fellner, Tim Bevan, Michael Schaefer9“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)Agustín Almodóvar, Esther García10“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)Ewa Puszczyńska, Jennifer Semler, Jesse Eisenberg, Emma Stone, Ali Herting, Dave McCaryBest Motion Picture (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)
Best Motion Picture (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)
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Image Credit: Big Things Films
Also In Contention
RankFilm31“The Substance” (Mubi)32“All We Imagine as Light” (Janus Films/Sideshow)33“In the Summers” (Music Box Films)34“The Bikeriders” (Focus Features)35“A Different Man” (A24)36“The Last Showgirl” (Roadside Attractions)37“Ghostlight” (IFC Films)38“Bird” (Mubi)39“Small Things Like These” (Lionsgate)40“Daughters” (Netflix)Best Motion Picture (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)
Eligible Titles (Best Picture)
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Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection
** This list is incomplete and not yet finalized. Not all films have distribution or release dates. All are subject to change.
More Information (Oscars: Best Picture)
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Image Credit: FilmMagic
2024 category winner: “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) — Emma Thomas, Charles Roven and Christopher Nolan
2024-2025 Oscars Calendar and Timeline (all dates are subject to change)
Eligibility period: Jan. 1, 2024 – Dec. 31, 2024
General entry, best picture, RAISE submission deadline: Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024
Governors Awards: Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024
Preliminary voting begins Monday, Dec. 9, 2024, at 9 a.m. PT.
Preliminary voting ends Friday, Dec. 13, 2024, at 5 p.m. PT.
Oscar Shortlists Announcement: Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024
Eligibility period ends: Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024
Nominations voting begins Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT.
Nominations voting ends Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT.
Oscar Nominations Announcement: Friday, Jan. 17, 2025
Oscar Nominees Luncheon: Monday, Feb. 10, 2025
Final voting begins Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT
Final voting ends: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT
Scientific and Technical Awards: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025
97th Oscars: Sunday, March 2, 2025
Oscars Prediction Categories
2024 Oscar Predictions (Variety Awards Circuit)
About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Nineteen branches are represented within the nearly 11,000-person membership. The branches are actors, animators, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films, sound, visual effects and writers.
