As Ukraine marks the third anniversary of the Russian invasion, Africa has become a strategic issue for both Moscow and Kyiv, with countries on the continent adjusting their stance according to their own economic interests and political alliances.
In African embassies, few voices are willing to speak out on the war in Ukraine. Many of the diplomats contacted by RFI were reluctant to discuss the subject – a silence that reflects a posture widely adopted by African states since the Russian invasion three years ago: that of strategic neutrality.
This reticence can be largely explained by economic considerations. “A number of African countries are dependent on deliveries of Russian and Ukrainian cereals and fertilisers. They can’t afford to break with either side,” explained Emmanuel Dupuy, president of think tank the Institute for European Perspective and Security Studies (IPSE) and a lecturer in geopolitics.
Diplomatic balancing act
Some states have adopted a pragmatic approach. Morocco, for example, is torn between expressing support for Ukraine – as a way of bolstering its own position on the Western Sahara – and adopting a cautious attitude towards Russia, so as not to jeopardise its veto on this issue in the United Nations Security Council.
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Dr. Serigne-Bamba Gaye, a consultant in geopolitical issues, calls this “African pragmatism”. “Africa maintains an open dialogue with all its partners. The example of South Africa is particularly revealing: although a member of BRICS alongside Russia, Pretoria continues to maintain relations with Ukraine, while consolidating its strategic partnership with Moscow,” he said.
The African battleground
The continent has in turn become a diplomatic battleground for Moscow and Kyiv, with the two capitals redoubling their efforts to rally support, using both strategic and symbolic arguments.
In its search for allies, Ukraine is positioning itself first and foremost as the target of an illegal invasion, a narrative that has particular resonance in African countries that have themselves suffered under colonisation.
Kyiv is seeking to generate solidarity by emphasising the right of a people to self-determination. On the diplomatic front it is stepping up its initiatives, notably through the Summit on Peace in Ukraine in Switzerland, in June 2024, which was attended by several African leaders.
Rejection of colonialist discourse
For its part, Russia is exploiting its network of historic alliances, while playing on an anti-Western rhetoric that resonates with certain African states. Former Malian ambassador Oumar Keita sums this up as follows: “The Western bloc really wants to impose, above all, human rights. Africans are very wary of this colonialist rhetoric. And Africa is in tune with Russia’s policy. We can’t say that Russia is a truly democratic country, but since Europe imposes democracy, it’s a bit complicated.”
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Senegal too is navigating Western pressure to condemn Russian aggression and the need to preserve its ties with Moscow. Macky Sall, in his role as then-chairman of the African Union, discussed the Grain from Ukraine programme – a humanitarian initiative under which Ukraine would supply grain to the poorest countries in Africa – with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in December 2022, but refrained from any outright break with Russia, a key player in energy and military exports to the continent.
Sahel alignment with Moscow
While many African countries have sought to maintain such strategic neutrality, some have changed their position. Mali is a striking example: after abstaining from voting on UN resolutions concerning Ukraine in 2022, in 2023 Bamako rallied to Russia’s position and voted against a resolution calling for an end to the war and demanding that Russia leave Ukrainian territory, in line with the growing rapprochement between the two countries.
This change in position was accompanied by a clear diplomatic break with Kyiv. Maliand Niger ceased relations with Ukraine on 4 and 6 August last year respectively, accusing Kyiv of “supporting international terrorism”.
This decision was precipitated by comments from Andriy Yusov, spokesman for Ukrainian Military Intelligence, who claimed Malian armed groups had used Ukrainian information during an offensive against the Malian army and Wagner Group mercenaries in Tinzaouaten in July 2024.
“Everything was fine between the two countries until Ukrainian officials made subversive remarks,” said Oumar Keita, a former Malian ambassador. For Bamako, these statements amounted to unacceptable interference, and reinforced the junta’s desire to strengthen its ties with Moscow.
“Wagner is still in Mali, close to the Malian army, fighting the terrorists. That says it all,” Keita added, in justification of the rapprochement with Moscow.
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Burkina Faso has joined its Alliance of Sahel States partners in aligning itself with Russia. The trio have asked the UN to take measures against Ukraine, illustrating a clear break with Ukraine.
According to Keita, this change of heart is also rooted in a feeling of disappointment with the West: “Mali was really disappointed because it was not supported in its fight against terrorism. That same position is still [the case] today.”
Africa on the international stage
“What has changed in three years is not so much Africa’s position, but the unity of the Western bloc,” according to Dr. Gaye. “The arrival of Donald Trump has upset the global balance, undermining unconditional support for Ukraine and paving the way for unilateral initiatives to try to resolve the conflict.”
He believes that while the African continent has demonstrated a pragmatic approach by refusing to align itself with or apply Western sanctions, it is still struggling to impose a common strategy in the face of the many crises that affect it. From instability in the Sahel to conflicts in Central Africa and Sudan, these internal security situations are limiting its diplomatic influence.
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“The resurgence of conflicts in Central Africa, Sudan and the Sahel illustrates a persistent strategic weakness,” he said. “Africa must adopt a more assertive pragmatism, not only to carry weight on the international stage, but above all to resolve its own crises. Otherwise, it will remain on the sidelines of major global decisions.”
This article has been adapted from the original French version.
