This year, Africa will be the second-fastest-growing region globally. But persistent problems, including poverty, the effects of climate change, and weak governance, are fuelling widespread social frustration.
This year, Africa will be the second-fastest-growing region globally. The African Development Bank projects an annual economic growth rate of 4.3 per cent, up from 3.7 per cent last year, with East Africa once again projected to be the most buoyant region.
But reducing poverty and fostering job-creating economic growth remain critical priorities because about 464 million people in the region live in extreme poverty. Persistent poverty, scarce economic opportunities, the effects of climate change and weak governance, compounded by rising living costs, are fuelling widespread social frustration.
Elections
Across Africa, increasing discontent over the rising cost of living and poor governance has become a common driver for electorates to penalize incumbent parties at the polls, a challenge for governments facing elections this year.
Last year, peaceful transfers of power followed elections in Botswana, Ghana, Mauritius, Senegal and the self-declared Republic of Somaliland. In a momentous shift, South Africa’s liberation party, the ANC, lost its majority, leading to the formation of a centrist coalition of 11 parties, seven with cabinet appointments.
In Namibia’s November elections, Swapo retained power with a slim majority, marking its weakest showing since independence in 1990.
Increasing discontent over the rising cost of living and poor governance has become a common driver for electorates to penalize incumbent parties at the polls, a challenge for governments facing elections this year.
In contrast, Mozambique’s October elections have plunged the country into turmoil. The victory of Frelimo and its presidential candidate have been fiercely challenged by opposition presidential aspirant Venâncio Mondlane, who claims widespread fraud denied him victory.
The dispute has sparked nationwide violence, leaving more than 300 people dead and causing significant economic damage. Frelimo’s Daniel Chapo was inaugurated as president in early January, but spurts of unrest expected to persist during the year. Urgent political reform will be critical for stabilizing the country.
Last year, election outcomes in more restrictive political systems followed predictable patterns.
In Rwanda, President Paul Kagame secured more than 99 per cent of the vote, setting a new personal record, while President Azali Assoumani of the Comoros was re-elected for a fourth five-year term with 63 pr cent of the vote, despite an opposition boycott and a low voter turnout, and Chad’s President Mahamat Déby transitioned to elected president in May.
Scheduled elections were once again postponed in Burkina Faso, Guinea-Bissau, Mali and South Sudan, with Burkina Faso’s military government extending junta rule until 2029 and confirming that its ruler, Captain Ibrahim Traoré, can run in the next presidential election.
In contrast, Gabon’s junta held a credible referendum on a new constitution, paving the way for presidential elections in April.
Elections this year will include Cameroon, where President Paul Biya, who has ruled since 1982, is reportedly set to run for an eighth term. In Côte d’Ivoire, President Alassane Ouattara faces a pivotal decision on whether to seek a fourth mandate or pave the way for a new generation to take over.
Related content The future of the Commonwealth National elections are also scheduled to take place in Malawi, Seychelles and Tanzania.
Additionally, the African Union will elect new senior leadership, including a chairperson for the AU Commission next month.
The African Development Bank will also choose a successor to Akinwumi Adesina, who concludes his tenure after two terms.
Ghana’s Shirley Botchway will assume the role of Commonwealth secretary general in April.
Security
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) celebrates its 50th anniversary this year amid significant problems.
The Sahel remains the epicentre of global terrorism and Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger are set to exit the bloc on 29 January.
Although ECOWAS has granted these military-led states a six-month cooling off period after their official withdrawal from the bloc, during which they can decide to rejoin, this is unlikely to happen soon.
Instead, they have formed the Alliance of Sahel States.
These nations face severe internal security threats, with terrorist groups controlling parts of their territories with significant risks of expansion to coastal West African states.
Eastern Congo will remain a violence hotspot this year with the UN warning there could be a renewed all-out regional conflict in that region.
Related content Civilian priorities for ending the war in Sudan On 15 December, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda withdrew from Angolan-mediated peace talks in Luanda, aimed at ending their confrontation in eastern Congo, which has displaced more than 7.2 million people.
Prospects for Sudan look equally bleak, with 21 months of war displacing 12 million people. Despite many rounds of international mediation last year, a breakthrough or ceasefire is unlikely in the near term.
Beyond Sudan, the Horn of Africa’s broader political fragility is set to remain visible. Mediation by Türkiye has eased tension between Somalia and Ethiopia over recognition of the self-declared Republic of Somaliland in exchange for access to the sea. But these could escalate if the new Donald Trump administration in the US decides to recognize its statehood.
Concerns are also growing over the further deterioration of relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
Geopolitics
Africa’s growing economic and political significance will again be highlighted through key summits.
The Ninth Tokyo International Conference on African Development will take place in August in Yokohama, while the US-Africa Business Summit is set for June in Angola. The next EU-African Union summit is also planned for this year.
Notably, South Africa’s G20 presidency marks a historic first, as it will be the first-ever G20 Summit to be hosted in Africa.
Related content South Africa’s foreign relations under a new government: consistent policy with a new style Inclusive economic growth, food security and artificial intelligence are South Africa’s priorities for its G20 presidency. Focused, practical outcomes will be crucial for advancing Africa’s interests at this global forum.
Following the inauguration of Trump as US president on 20 January, expectations point to selective US engagement in Africa.
The Trump administration could prioritize US strategic interests, potentially sidelining African economic development, with a greater emphasis on bilateral deals.
Trump has also threatened to impose 100 per cent tariffs on BRICS members – which now includes Egypt and Ethiopia, in addition to South Africa – if the group pushes forward with the proposal to create a rival currency to the US dollar.
The African Growth and Opportunity Act, which grants African nations duty-free access to the US market for specific products, faces uncertainty but is likely to be renewed this year in a more transactional form, potentially narrowing tariff-free access.
It could become more sharply aligned with US geopolitical interests, particularly in countering China’s influence in Africa.
Competition with, and containment of, China will remain a key priority for Washington. But Beijing’s reduction of its financial commitments to Africa has led many African countries to seek new or renewed partnerships elsewhere.
Beijing’s reduction of its financial commitments to Africa has led many African countries to seek new or renewed partnerships elsewhere.
This year, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are set to become significant investors in Africa’s mining sector, while Türkiye, and other Gulf States, are also showing greater appetite to widen their African involvement.
If the Ukraine war subsides, Russia might also aggressively pursue new defence and trade opportunities across Africa.
As part of its broader strategy on the continent, Russia is expected to host its next Africa summit next year, and Equatorial Guinea has offered to host the event.
Meanwhile, the UK has announced that it is developing a new approach to Africa.
France, having withdrawn all its troops from Chad by 31 December, will pull most of its military deployments in Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal this year.
A version of this article was originally published by the Mail & Guardian newspaper.
