New York — The United Nations has chosen “For ALL Women and Girls: Rights. Equality. Empowerment.” as the theme for International Women’s Day on March 8, 2025. This theme emphasizes the importance of equal rights, power, and opportunities for all women and girls, urging action to create a feminist future where no one is left behind.
The UN has long been a champion of gender equality, advocating for women’s rights and empowerment across the globe. However, despite its strong stance on gender issues, the UN has yet to elect a female Secretary-General in its nearly 80-year history.
This paradox highlights significant issues regarding the organization’s internal dynamics and the broader challenges of achieving gender parity in global leadership. It emphasizes the need for continued efforts to remove systemic barriers that prevent women from attaining top leadership positions.
Entrenched Selection Process
The UN Secretary-General is appointed by the General Assembly, but only upon the recommendation of the Security Council, in accordance with Article 97 of the UN Charter. The selection process is both complex and politically charged.
The Security Council, where the five permanent members — China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States — hold major influence, also has the power to veto candidates. This structure has historically favored individuals with strong political backing and extensive diplomatic experience, most of whom have been men.
Of the five permanent UN Security Council members, only France and the United Kingdom have had a female head of state, while China, Russia, and the United States have not. This contributes to an estimated 40% probability of selecting a female UN Secretary-General in 2026.
To be chosen as the Secretary-General, a candidate must secure at least nine votes (60%) from the Security Council’s members, with no vetoes from the permanent members. Of the current ten non-permanent members of the Security Council, only Denmark, Pakistan, and the Republic of Korea have had a female head of state. Without any vetoes from permanent members, the chances of selecting a female Secretary-General are about 33%.
As of November 2024, only 30 women were serving as Heads of State and/or Government in 28 countries, reflecting a significant gender disparity in global leadership. This represents a small fraction of the 193 member states of the UN General Assembly. Based on current trends, there is only about a 15% chance of selecting a female UN Secretary-General.
Historical Precedents
All nine UN Secretaries-General to date have been men, reflecting a historical pattern where candidates with strong political backing and alignment with the interests of the permanent members of the Security Council have been favored.
The historical dominance of men in the UN’s highest office creates a challenging legacy to overcome. This precedent can shape perceptions and biases, making it more difficult for female candidates to be seen as viable options.
Based on historical precedents of selecting only men, the possibility of having a woman as the next Secretary-General is close to zero.
Gender Disparity in Political Leadership
Men hold the majority of positions of power and influence worldwide. This is because global power predominantly has a male face.
Historically, leadership roles have been shaped by masculine norms and values, which continue to influence the structures and practices of power today. For example, international politics often mirrors masculine traits such as dominance, conflict, and hegemony.
Globally, women remain under-represented in political and diplomatic roles. As of January 1, 2024, women represented 23.3% of Cabinet members heading ministries and leading policy areas. Only 15 countries have women holding 50% or more of the Cabinet Minister positions in leading policy areas.
As of January 2025, women represent approximately 28.2% of the U.S. Congress, despite comprising 51% of the U.S. population.
This global under-representation of women extends to the pool of candidates for UN Secretary-General, where political and diplomatic experience is key. This significantly lowers the chances of a female candidate, with the likelihood estimated to be around 20%.
Geopolitical Interests
The geopolitical interests of the Security Council’s permanent members heavily influence the selection process, with their veto power often used to block candidates who do not align with their priorities.
The need for consensus among these powerful nations often results in the selection of candidates who align with their geopolitical interests, rather than prioritizing gender equality. These dynamics can overshadow the push for gender equality, leading to the selection of male candidates who are perceived to better serve the strategic interests of these nations.
The interplay of international politics and gender considerations creates a challenging environment for female candidates.
Regional Rotations
Historically, the office of the Secretary-General has been held by individuals from various regions, including Africa, Asia, Latin America, and Western Europe. This practice aims to balance regional influence within the UN and promote leadership diversity.
Regional rotation plays an important, though informal, role in selecting the UN Secretary-General, as candidates typically need support from their regional groups to gain wider acceptance.
However, the final selection is still subject to the approval of the Security Council, where any of the five permanent members can veto the choice.
The practice of regional rotation has not yet resulted in the selection of a female Secretary-General. In 2016, there was a significant push to select the first female Secretary-General, with several female candidates from Eastern Europe being considered. However, António Guterres from Portugal was finally selected.
Lack of Concrete Actions and Commitment
In November 2024, during the debate on revitalization of the work at the 79th Session of the UN General Assembly, delegates overwhelmingly urged the appointment of a female Secretary-General, supported by a joint statement by 78 Member States.
In February 2025, during the thematic debate at the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Revitalization of the General Assembly, around 90 Member States called for greater women’s representation in the UN leadership, including in the selection of the next Secretary-General.
Although many Member States have expressed support for a female Secretary-General, the lack of concrete steps to reform the selection process means that this support remains largely symbolic. Without specific actions and commitments, the chances of achieving this outcome remain slim.
Growing Advocacy
Advocacy for appointing a female Secretary-General as the UN’s 10th Secretary-General in 2026 is gaining momentum. Various organizations and influential figures are calling for gender equality in the UN’s highest office.
This advocacy underscores the need to address the historic gender imbalance and ensure that the UN genuinely represents and champions gender equality. Breaking this glass ceiling will be a significant step towards true gender equality, both within and outside the organization.
The advocacy campaign for a female Secretary-General needs not only strong individual candidates but also a concerted effort to address systemic barriers that prevent women from reaching top leadership positions. Without substantial reforms and concrete actions, this goal remains distant.
Conclusion
Electing a female Secretary-General would send a powerful message about the UN’s commitment to gender parity and set a precedent for gender equality in global governance.
While it is challenging to assign a precise probability of having a female Secretary-General for the next term, a reasonable estimate is around 20-30%. This takes into account the historical lack of female Secretaries-General, balanced by the increasing advocacy for a female Secretary-General and potential shifts in political support.
Women have yet to achieve the rights, power, and opportunities needed to hold the UN’s highest office.
Shihana Mohamed, a Sri Lankan national, is a founding member and Coordinator of the United Nations Asia Network for Diversity and Inclusion (UN-ANDI) and a US Public Voices Fellow with The OpEd Project and Equality Now on Advancing the Rights of Women and Girls. She is a dedicated human rights activist and a strong advocate of gender equality and advancement of women.The author expresses her views in this article in an entirely unofficial, private, and personal capacity. These views do not reflect those of any organization.https://www.linkedin.com/in/shihana-mohamed-68556b15/
IPS UN Bureau
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