US-South Africa relations have been tense and difficult for several years, but with the advent of the Trump Administration they have reached a critical juncture. The eventual outcome of this bilateral relationship is likely to impact US relationships with the rest of Africa, particularly the Great Lakes region and southern Africa. The following explores US-Africa trade relations, exemplified by the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), and the fundamental differences in foreign policy between South Africa and the United States.
Historically, South Africa and the United States Have Had a Complex Relationship
The relationship between the United States and South Africa has long been complex, influenced by factors such as apartheid, economic interests, and geopolitical strategies. During the apartheid era, US relations with South Africa were a mix of support and criticism, with economic sanctions playing a significant role in pressuring the South African government to dismantle apartheid. Any gains were offset by the negative public reactions from black South Africans to former President Ronald Reagan’s “Constructive Engagement” policy, which prioritized resistance against communist expansion over efforts to end human rights violations internationally. Although Reagan acknowledged the importance of ending apartheid, he still extended American support and friendship to South Africa as long as the South African government opposed Communism.
Following the end of apartheid, the relationship between the two countries has fluctuated, with alternating periods of cooperation and tension. During the Cold War, the African National Congress was considered a terrorist group. Its leader, Nelson Mandela, served as the president of South Africa’s first post-apartheid government from 1994 to 1999 and was on the US terrorism watchlist until 2008. While few Americans are aware of this, even fewer South Africans are unaware, which is the source of much tension between the African National Congress and the United States.
AGOA and Trade Relations
AGOA has been a cornerstone of US trade policy in Africa since it was signed into law by former President George W. Bush on May 18, 2000. It aimed to enhance US market access for qualifying sub-Saharan African countries. While South Africa has benefited significantly from AGOA, there have been ongoing disputes over trade practices, intellectual property rights, and market access. The most fundamental area of disagreement, which has threatened South Africa’s AGOA eligibility even prior to US President Donald Trump’s election, is South Africa’s membership in the BRICS trade bloc and its perceived orientation toward Russia and China. Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa were first grouped together as rapidly growing major economies. BRICS has since become an alternate political forum to the US-led West, seeking to shift the global order more to the advantage of China and to move away from the US dollar’s domination of the global economy.
With Trump’s inauguration, the future of AGOA is uncertain. There are concerns that the administration’s trade policies could reduce benefits or even terminate the act. If AGOA is extended, it is unlikely that South Africa will remain eligible due to fundamental foreign policy differences with the United States and ongoing trade disputes.
Foreign Policy Differences
The United States and South Africa hold widely different views on a number of foreign policy issues, including international trade, human rights, and regional security. The most fundamental disagreements have occurred in the past few years and stem from two major divergences. One is South Africa’s support for Russia since its invasion of Ukraine: In late 2022, for example, South Africa was accused of transferring weapons to aid Russia’s war against Ukraine. South African officials dispute this allegation. Second, South Africa initiated a genocide case against Israel in the International Court of Justice in 2024, sparking a negative American response from Democrats and Republicans alike.
Since the beginning of the new Trump Administration, bilateral frictions have increased, beginning with a February 7, 2025, executive order that set up a special refugee program for white, Afrikaner farmers in response to the passage of new South African land laws. Within the administration’s across-the-board funding freeze, all aid going to South Africa was specifically halted. In addition, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio pulled out of a ministerial meeting for this year’s G20 summit, accusing South Africa of being anti-American. South Africa is hosting this year’s summit, and the United States is set to host next year, complicating this year’s handoff from current to future host.
The fundamental differences in foreign policy between the two countries have implications for bilateral relations, affecting cooperation on key issues such as trade, security, and human rights. A prolonged diplomatic standoff could harm South Africa’s economy and imperil the coalition government’s status. But South Africa is a major source of precious minerals that are important to the US economy, particularly for high-tech manufacturing. It is also an influential local intermediary in the southern African region for trade, development, peace, and security negotiations.
Where Will the Relationship Go From Here?
Given the current state of affairs, several scenarios could unfold regarding the US-South Africa relationship. They range from continued tension and eventual disengagement to reconciliation and renewed cooperation.
The US-South Africa relationship could continue to deteriorate, leading to disengagement on both sides. This would result in reduced trade, limited diplomatic exchanges, and decreased cooperation on regional security issues. A break in the bilateral relationship of this magnitude would forestall potential cooperation with those entities in South Africa who are pro-United States and who could be instrumental in moving the country’s domestic politics more in alignment with US foreign policy goals.
Alternatively, reconciliation and renewed cooperation are possible, no matter how remote. They would, however, require both countries to address their fundamental differences and seek common ground on key issues. Successful reconciliation could lead to enhanced trade relations, an increase in diplomatic engagements, and stronger collaboration on regional security. South Africa is a key player in the African Union and significantly influences regional politics and economic activities.
If the relationship between the United States and South Africa remains strained, it could impact trade relations with other African countries. The potential exclusion of South Africa from AGOA could lead to a general reassessment of regional trade policies and strategies.
The strained relationship could also affect diplomatic and security cooperation. South Africa’s role in regional security initiatives, such as peacekeeping missions and counter-terrorism efforts, is crucial. A disengaged South Africa could reduce the effectiveness of these initiatives.
Human rights and development are key areas of cooperation between the United States and African countries. Strained relations with South Africa could negatively impact US efforts to promote human rights, respect for the rule of law, and development across the continent.
The US-South Africa relationship stands at a critical juncture at the moment. The impact of this relationship on US connections with the rest of Africa is significant, influencing trade, diplomacy, security, and development. The future of AGOA and the ability of both countries to reconcile their fundamental foreign policy differences will play a crucial role in shaping these relations. Moving forward, it is essential for both the United States and South Africa to seek common ground and address their differences in a meaningful way to ensure a mutually beneficial partnership.
Charles A. Ray, a member of the Board of Trustees and Chair of the Africa Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, served as US Ambassador to the Kingdom of Cambodia and the Republic of Zimbabwe.
