Reflecting on my experience over the year, I offer five recommendations for 2025 to guide our collective efforts alongside donors and partners, in protecting and finding solutions for people forced to flee in West and Central Africa.
The Sahel region in particular faces two issues high on the global agenda: Migration and Security.
While these issues are outside UNHCR’s mandate as a humanitarian and impartial organization focused on refugees, stateless persons, and internally displaced persons, they frequently come up in my discussions with donors and partners. They are part of the broader context in which we operate – a context also shaped by political shifts.
This evolving landscape requires us to adapt our approach as we remain steadfast in our mandate to protect and find solutions for the forcibly displaced while upholding the principles of neutrality, impartiality, and independence.
1. Invest in countries upstream to safeguard protection space and address needs before people are forced to flee
Did you know that 90% of migration originating in Africa stays within the continent, while 10% cross to other regions? Similarly, very few of the forcibly displaced from this region, seek international protection outside the region.
When I worked for UNHCR in the Niger in 2016 there were close to 203,000 internally displaced persons in the Central Sahel. Within a decade, the number of IDPs in the Central Sahel has increased to almost three million. Today 18% of all forcibly displaced persons within in the West and Central Africa region are refugees.
Insecurity is deepening, with conflict as the primary driver of forced displacement, further deteriorating the protection environment. Meanwhile with current population growth rates, the population is projected to double by 2050.
The relatively small number of refugees who move on to Europe often travel with migrants in mixed movements, sharing overlapping vulnerabilities and facing life-threatening protection risks.
In 2023, nationals from West and Central African countries accounted for 54% of arrivals to Italy. So far in 2024 this has reduced to 21% in a context where the overall arrivals to Italy have decreased by 64% since 2023. Meanwhile, movement via the West Atlantic Route has surged, with Canary Islands arrivals up 154% from 2022 to 2023.
At the same time, humanitarian funding to the West and Central Africa region remains insufficient with countries in the Central Sahel receiving only 42% of funding against their humanitarian response plans in 2024. This shortfall contributes to a shrinking protection space in a growing displacement crisis.
Although states in the region are committed to protecting forcibly displaced population, national capacities are overwhelmed.
Decision-makers today must take these trends into account when shaping responses that inform the future.
Greater investment is needed before people embark on life-threatening journeys, including enhanced protection services that prevent and respond to risks, as well as local alternatives. In a region where 65% of the population is under the age of 24, investments in livelihoods, development, and educational opportunities for young people are particularly critical.
In 2025, we will work with IOM and other partners to enhance support to States in scaling up what we call the “route-based approach.” This approach focuses delivering protection and solutions where they are most needed.
2. Remain engaged in the Sahel alongside us
Given this context we must remain engaged in the Sahel. As governments respond to several large-scale humanitarian and displacement crises across the world, we must not lose sight of emerging situations where there is an opportunity to act to prevent further escalation.
Now is not the time to turn away.
Disengagement risks exacerbating protection risks and limiting solutions. Continued engagement can take many forms – funding, advocacy, presence, or dialogue.
3. Localize: Accelerate investment at Community Level
Strong, resilient communities are essential for fostering social cohesion, which in turn is crucial to contributing to peace. Throughout this region, we have made a strategic shift towards localization, moving from international partnerships to strengthening capacities of local actors. We are also transitioning from providing individual assistance to implementing community-based interventions.
Our community-based approach includes both local populations and forcibly displaced persons. By engaging both groups from the outset, we aim to strengthen community relations and foster stability. In a challenging security context, this approach strengthens communities and reduces the risk of dependency on external actors. I am encouraged to hear that donors and partners share this same vision.
4. Invest in Sustainable Responses
The displacement crisis in West and Central Africa is protracted, with 8.2 million internally displaced persons (IDPs).
During a recent visit to Nigeria, which hosts 3.6 million IDPs, the highest number of IDPs within a country in the region, I met families who had spent years in makeshift camps, dependent on assistance. Among them, a young girl stood out as she shared her dreams and aspirations–a powerful reminder of the untapped potential of displaced individuals and the urgent need for long-term solutions.
In Chad, over 710,000 refugees and an estimated 240,000 Chadian returnees have sought refuge from Sudan since April 2023. Chad was already hosting 579,000 refugees from Sudan, who arrived since 2003. For more than two decades, assistance has remained a critical part of their lives.
We must do more to invest in solutions to forced displacement, enabling those who are forcibly displaced to realize their full potential.
While we will continue to respond to emergencies, our efforts have shifted to include sustainable solutions from the outset, supporting the capacity of countries to achieve this including advocating for the inclusion of the forcibly displaced in development programs.
This requires a whole-of-society approach grounded in the principles of the Global Compact. Governments and development partners and civil society actors play a key role, as does the private sector including by creating employment opportunities.
5. Prioritize Dialogue
While the context remains complex, consistent, and transparent dialogue with all stakeholders is essential for navigating these challenges. We continue to put the needs and perspectives of the forcibly displaced at the forefront of discussions including with governments as those with primary responsibility for refugees and the internally displaced.
Investing in data is essential to this process. Protection data such as from Project 21 presents an evidence-based narrative that enables joint, strategic, political, and financial decisions often facilitating a political conversation underpinned by apolitical data.
The role of data in dialogue is critical in advocating for the forcibly displaced and achieving sustainable solutions.
