African heads of state are gathering for their annual summit in Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa this weekend, with escalating conflict in the DRC, the war and resulting humanitarian crisis in Sudan and cuts to aid from the US dominating the agenda.
The 38th African Union Summit brings together representatives from the 55 member states.
Held on 15-16 February, the conference will see the election of the AU’s new chairman – a post which represents some 1.5 billion people across the continent, at a time of heightened uncertainty and regional conflict.
The three candidates are Mahamoud Ali Youssouf, a 59-year-old career diplomat who has been foreign minister of Djibouti; Raila Odinga, the 80-year-old veteran Kenyan opposition politician; and Richard Randriamandrato, Madagascar’s former economy and finance minister, 55.
The new chair will replace Chad’s Moussa Faki Mahamat, who has reached the two-term limit on the post.
Global context
The election will be closely watched, according to Liesl Louw-Vaudran, senior advisor on the African Union at the International Crisis Group (ICG), an NGO which works to resolve armed conflict.
“The new chair could bring fresh energy to the role and invigorate the organisation’s work in a time of dire need,” she told RFI.
She believes a new chairperson could bring a new sense of optimism, following eight years of what she terms poor leadership. “If we get someone that’s a bit more ambitious and dynamic, you know that can help,” she said.
But she also stressed that the current global context is difficult for multilateral organisations, including the United Nations. “The AU is finding it very difficult in this very fraught international environment to impose itself, and for states to be seen to look at collective responses to crises rather than [being] inward-looking.”
“Each state is looking after their own interests, so it’s not something that’s unique to the African Union. But the African Union is not just governments, it’s also people and civil society organisations who use the African Union as a venue to promote other issues, gender issues and so on. So, hopefully that will continue,” she added.
Crises on the continent
The escalation of the conflict in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the United States’ humanitarian aid cuts and the war in Sudan are expected to dominate discussions at the summit.
“With conflicts proliferating and traditional peacekeeping mechanisms faltering, there is both need and opportunity for the African Union to up its game,” said Murithi Mutiga, the ICG’s Africa programme director. “AU leaders and member states must take greater responsibility for conflict prevention on the continent. If they don’t, it is quite possible no one else will.”
On 6 February the NGO published a report entitled Eight Priorities for the African Union in 2025. However, according to Louw-Vaudran, this was overtaken by recent developments.
“We had worked on this report for months and months, and then a week before publication, [we had] literally the fall of Goma… So we might have shifted [the situation in eastern DRC] to number one, ahead of Sudan.”
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In terms of the AU’s role in conflict mediation, she added: “The African Union for the last 20 years has been trying to promote peaceful solutions to conflicts. But when member states are so divided, we get statements that are compromises and don’t mean much. So the mediators and the African Union have to be able to come up with something a bit more robust.”
Sudan too was high on the agenda for the AU’s Peace and Security Council meeting on Friday.
“It’s such a complex conflict with so many actors, actors outside of Africa – the [mediation] attempts that were made were mostly by the US, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt and the UAE. So it’s unlikely that the African Union itself will be a major mediator. Our recommendations will be towards the Sudanese civil society process that the African Union has been trying to coordinate.”
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The climate question
Aside from major conflicts, the ICG report also highlighted the need to adopt a position on climate change for Africa.
“There’s an overwhelming consensus there that climate change is a huge threat to the African continent,” Louw-Vaudran said. “And the Peace and Security Council has actually been working on this common African position on climate, peace and security, which is a document that kind of warns about the fact that climate change can exacerbate conflict, and also calling for more financing for adaptation.”
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She continued: “We do believe that in the next couple of months, at least before COP30 or hopefully before the G20 in South Africa in November, there would be a common African position because that makes it much easier for the African Union to speak on behalf of the continent.”
Also on the agenda at the summit are the issues of reparations for colonial-era abuses and damages for the transatlantic slave trade.
