From the Series Mania conference in Lille, France, Ampere Analysis‘ Guy Bisson and Cyrine Amor took to the stage Tuesday, armed with data, insights and a keen understanding of the seismic shifts in television production and commissioning.
The duo painted a picture of an industry in transition as it adjusts to the end of Peak TV, the realities of cost-cutting and the evolving preferences of global audiences.
75% Peak TV: A Market in Correction
“We are at 75% Peak TV,” Bisson declared, setting the tone for his presentation. “After this roller-coaster ride, certain types of content are falling out of favor.” He pointed to a 25% decline in first-run scripted series orders from their peak, emphasizing that this downturn was not necessarily a crisis but rather an adjustment.
High-budget sci-fi and fantasy productions are among the most significant casualties of this shift. “Some of the more expensive sci-fi fantasy series are getting canceled more frequently and made somewhat less,” he noted. Similarly, first-run children’s programming has suffered, with many platforms shifting to a licensing model rather than investing in original content. “The broad trend is a move towards more cost-effective content investment than perhaps would characterize the market three or four years ago,” Bisson explained.
Despite this contraction, he reassured the audience that stability had begun to emerge. “The market trending to zero change is a good thing,” he said, emphasizing that the industry was finding a new equilibrium after years of expansion and uncertainty.
Crime and Comedy: The Pillars of European Commissioning
While some genres are in decline, others are flourishing. Crime remains the dominant genre in Europe, with a notable resurgence in comedy. “Comedy is back,” Bisson affirmed, “but crime remains the most important genre for Europe.” He attributed this to audience demand and the increasing “broadcastification of streaming.”
“What we’re seeing is streamers becoming more like broadcasters,” Bisson observed. This shift means prioritizing tried-and-true formats over experimental content. “Crime is absolutely central when you’re talking about scripted,” he added, noting that “crime and thriller now make up 31% of European scripted commissions.”
Comedy, meanwhile, has found renewed favor, though often in hybrid forms. “What in the past might have been dramas are now dramedies,” he pointed out. “People want a break, and comedy-laced dramas provide that.”
Public Broadcasters Hold the Line
One of the key stabilizing forces in European television has been public broadcasters and producer-distributors, which account for 55% of all commissioning activity in the region. “They are fairly level,” Bisson said, “a stable baseline that has provided continuity amid market fluctuations.”
However, streamers and commercial free-to-air broadcasters are making a cautious return. “They are recovering out of a big dip in 2023,” he noted.
The Rise of International Markets
Perhaps the most striking development has been the geographic shift in production. “We used to talk about Netflix reaching an inflection point where the majority of their first-run commissioning for scripted was outside the U.S,” Bisson remarked. “Now, that applies across the global six streamers: Netflix, Amazon, Apple, Disney, Max and Paramount.”
These platforms are increasingly turning to regional specializations. “Asia seems to be favoring sci-fi production,” Bisson said, “while the U.S. leans towards general drama, including comedic drama.” Meanwhile, Europe remains the hub for crime programming. “It’s not that these regions don’t produce other genres,” he clarified, “but they are skewing in these directions.”
This shift has major implications for investment. “They haven’t quite reached the tipping point yet,” Bisson noted, “but they’re close to 50/50 in terms of spend between the U.S. and international markets.”
The Future of IP and Production Partnerships
With budget constraints tightening, European broadcasters are increasingly leaning on pre-existing intellectual property. “Public service broadcasters in Europe are saying, ‘Let’s take risk out by adapting already successful intellectual property,’” Bisson explained. “It’s a way to cut through the crowd and guarantee an audience.”
Conversely, the U.S. is moving in the opposite direction, showing a preference for original IP. “Europe increasing its adaptation of existing IP while the U.S. reduces it is an interesting contrast,” he said.
Production partnerships are also consolidating. “We’re seeing streamers push commissions either to their own sister companies or a small selection of larger production groups,” Bisson observed. “Safe hands are what people are after.” This trend favors industry giants while squeezing out smaller, independent production houses that thrived during Peak TV. “Unfortunately, many of them will likely struggle to survive in this new environment.”
Emerging Themes: Faith, War and Mental Health
Beyond genre and geography, Bisson highlighted new thematic trends in content commissioning. “If we drill into what the newly commissioned first-run shows are about, we see some clear patterns,” he said. “War and conflict are up 22%, faith-based storylines have grown by 500%, social media and influencer stories are up 30% and mental health themes are up 13%.”
Such trends are born out in Series Mania where both “Kabul” and “A Life’s Worth,” in its Competition and Panorama, turn on war and conflict, and “Empathy,” another competition entry, revolves around mental health, or lack of.
He suggested that these trends reflect broader societal anxieties. “The military focus is clearly linked to geopolitics,” he noted, “while faith-based content may be an antidote for audiences seeking solace.”
Meanwhile, diversity in representation is in flux. “LGBTQ+ themed titles have lost share outside APAC,” Bisson pointed out, “while gender representation is reaching parity. We’re getting closer to balance between male-led and female-led dramas.”
The Road Ahead
As Bisson concluded his presentation, he offered a final reflection on the state of the industry. “We are at a moment of recalibration,” he said. “Peak TV is behind us, but the market isn’t collapsing. It’s evolving.”
With crime and comedy leading the way, international markets on the rise and risk-averse strategies guiding commissioning decisions, the television industry is poised for a new chapter. Whether that chapter brings greater stability or further disruption remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: in the world of television, change is the only constant.
