Dublin-based aircraft leasing company Avolon has published a new market outlook report, predicting that the global airline industry will reach US$1 trillion in revenue for the first time ever during 2025.
According to this analysis, the main driver behind this growth is the Asia-Pacific region, which will be adding more capacity than all other regions of the world combined.
A case in point is China, which, according to the experts at Avolon, may see 800 aircraft orders placed by its carriers in 2025 (for reference, Chinese airlines received 182 new aircraft during 2024).
This will also result in higher profitability for the airline industry as a whole, with an expected combined net income of US$36 billion for 2025, up 16% from the previous year.
The report also acknowledges significant increases in maintenance (up 19%) and labor costs (8%), although these have been partly offset by lower fuel prices.
At the same time, the aircraft manufacturing industry is braced to continue struggling to supply booming airlines. Aircraft deliveries are expected to be ramped up by 20% in 2025. However, Airbus and Boeing will still have their order books full for the foreseeable future. Avolon predicts that this year may even see new delivery slots for narrowbody aircraft stretch into the 2040s.
As a result of this equipment scarcity, carriers are expected to extend the lifespan of their current fleets. Leasing rates will also continue to be strong, despite already being at relatively high levels after having gone up around 50% over the last couple of years.
Avolon has also forecasted that the Airbus A330neo will receive the most orders among widebody aircraft, as up to 70 operators of the legacy ceo version have not yet decided on the replacement of their existing fleets.
