“Captain America: Brave New World” proves that Marvel hasn’t lost its mojo. The fourth “Captain America” installment, and first in which Anthony Mackie’s Sam Wilson takes up the star-spangled shield, delivered a mighty $100 million in its domestic debut over the extended Presidents Day weekend. The film added another $92.4 million overseas for a $192.4 million global tally, easily the best start of the (nascent) year.
Yet opening weekends are rarely a problem for Disney’s Marvel Cinematic Universe. To wit: All 35 films in the sprawling comic book franchise have launched to No. 1, even the ones described by critics as a “pile of dirt.” So in the case of “Captain America: Brave New World,” all eyes will be on the staying power — industry parlance for how a movie’s ticket sales hold (or don’t) in the subsequent weekends on the big screen. That’s of paramount concern because the all-powerful MCU has struggled with commercial consistency since the epic success of 2019’s “Avengers: Endgame,” and these superhero sequels don’t come cheap. “Captain America: Brave New World” cost north of $180 million to make and at least $100 million to market across the globe. And it’s just one of three Marvel movies this year with “Thunderbolts” and “The Fantastic Four: First Steps” to follow in the summer.
“When you look at the release calendar, I don’t see anything that can cut into ‘Captain America,’” says Jeff Bock, a box office analyst with Exhibitor Relations. “If audiences want to be entertained at a blockbuster level, it’s their only option.”
Indeed, there’s nothing resembling a four-quadrant blockbuster on the calendar until Disney’s “Snow White” remake on March 21. So cinema operators need “Captain America: Brave New World” to endure on the scale of 2023’s “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” rather than “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania” and “The Marvels” to be deemed a financial winner.
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” powered to $118 million domestically at the start of that summer’s movie season and continued to draw audiences in the following weekends, with revenues declining by 47% in its second and third outing and 35% in its fourth frame. Those were decent holds compared to other superhero films of its size. The third “Guardians” ended its run with $358 million in North America and a sizable $845 million globally. That’s the best case scenario for Cap’s latest cinematic adventure.
Yet the reality is that even Marvel’s biggest blockbusters have plunged after record-breaking debuts in the post-“Endgame” era. “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness” and “Thor: Love and Thunder,” which earned $955 million and $760 million respectively in 2022, each declined 67% in their sophomore outings.
Then there’s “Ant-Man and the Wasp Quantumania,” which scored a trilogy-best $120 million debut over Presidents Day weekend in 2023. Saddled with some of the worst reviews of any MCU film, ticket sales collapsed by 70% in its second weekend. The film ultimately failed to cross the $500 million mark worldwide, a modest benchmark for Marvel. Not to be outdone, “The Marvels,” the sole MCU movie to flop out of the gate, took a 78% nosedive in its second weekend.
“This has a chance to have long playability. ‘Ant-Man’ didn’t have that,” says Bock, referring to sleeper hits like “Cocaine Bear” and “Jesus Revolution,” both of which opened the weekend after “Quantumania.”
For “Captain America: Brave New World,” reviews and audience reactions aren’t exactly encouraging for the film’s theatrical endurance. The movie has dismal marks, at least by MCU standards, with a 51% Rotten Tomatoes average and lousy “B-” grade on CinemaScore exit polls.
However there are signs, beyond a lack of competition, that Cap and company could withstand the bad buzz and give the box office a needed boost. The film boasted a strong turnout across all demographics; 35% of opening weekend ticket buyers were Caucasian, 26% were Latino and Hispanic, 23% were Black and 10% were Asian. It’s a sign the tentpole has the kind of broad appeal that’s necessary to boost a given movie from mere hit to runaway (Hulk) smash.
Moreover, sources close to the superhero adaptation believe that CinemaScore isn’t the best measure of moviegoer reception. They feel that way because those grades are bestowed after polling patrons in just a few theaters. On Rotten Tomatoes, a more expansive metric, “Captain America: Brave New World” has a stronger 80% “verified audience score.” (“Quantumania” has an 81% “verified audience score.”) PostTrak, another metric to poll moviegoers, reported that parents and kids gave the film four out of five stars. However, general audiences handed out three of five stars.
“Captain America: Brave New World” was also popular in premium formats with Imax, Dolby and other like formats accounting for 44% of inaugural sales. Those tickets are more expensive than standard 2D screen and have helped to offset a downward trend in attendance.
“We’re very happy on our side,” says Chris Randleman of Texas-based luxury movie theater chain Flix Brewhouse. “Walk-up business has been great despite the reviews. It’s an accessible film with a clear hook.”
He adds, “It’s going to look like ticket sales had a big drop. But that’s because this weekend is inflated with the double holiday of Valentine’s Day and Presidents Day.”
After the embarrassing misfires of “Ant-Man” and “The Marvels,” Disney’s CEO Bob Iger announced a company-wide mandate to focus on quality over quantity. “At the time the pandemic hit, we were leaning into a huge increase in how much we were making,” Iger said during a 2023 earnings call. “We lost some focus.” That year, in addition to the three theatrical releases, there were three Disney+ television series. Then, 2024 marked an aberration with just one film (along with another three seasons of television) on the calendar. “Deadpool & Wolverine,” an R-rated buddy comedy led by two of the most popular comic book characters, became an unmitigated smash with $1.33 billion globally.
Marvel is back to regularly scheduled programming with another two tentpoles on schedule over the next six months: “Thunderbolts” on May 2 and “The Fantastic Four: First Steps” on July 25. Amid those megawatt titles, DC Comics has “Superman,” a Man of Steel reboot from director James Gunn, on July 11. Hollywood is banking on this year’s quartet of comic book offerings to revive the hit-or-miss superhero genre.
“The industry needs Marvel. No other film is opening to over $100 million in February,” says Bock. “Having three of them on the calendar is a bright spot.”
