Sunday might be billed as Hollywood’s biggest night, but it certainly won’t be outside of the Oscars ceremony. As the town readies for the last evening of awards season, theaters are seeing another muted weekend. Focus Features’ underwater thriller “Last Breath” is projecting a measured opening at $7.3 million. Meanwhile, Disney’s “Captain America: Brave New World” is expected to maintain No. 1 for the third weekend in a row, despite quickly losing momentum among moviegoers.
“Last Breath” dived into $3 million across Friday and preview screenings from 3,018 venues. The survival thriller, about a real rescue operation by deep sea divers, is projected to earn $7.3 million through its opening frame. Alex Parkinson directs a cast that includes Woody Harrelson, Simu Liu and Finn Cole, adapting from his own 2019 documentary of the same name. Focus acquired distribution rights last summer.
Reviews have been positive for “Last Breath” and audience sentiment is positive, with moviegoer pollster Cinema Score turning in a B+ grade. Original, adult dramas have been tougher sells for moviegoers in recent years. Focus is hoping solid notices can propel “Last Breath” and keep it from wobbly sea legs in the weeks ahead.
Meanwhile, “Captain America: Brave New World” is expected to hold onto the top slot at the box office, even after it suffered a 68% drop in its last outing — the third-worst second-weekend plummet in Marvel Cinematic Universe’s history, behind only theatrical bombs “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania” (-69%) and “The Marvels” (-78%). The superhero entry earned another $3.6 million on Friday, which is down 50% from its $7.2 million daily gross a week ago.
“Brave New World” will look to surpass $150 million domestic sometime on Sunday. It’ll soon outgross “Eternals,” another rare Marvel disappointment at $164 million. Counting down the list, that’d make it the 32nd-highest-grossing MCU entry in North America, ranked among 35 total entries. “Brave New World” will next have to get ahead of the 2011 original “Captain America: The First Avenger” ($176 million) to even escape a bottom five finish for the franchise.
Falling to third place, Neon’s horror comedy “The Monkey” is suffering a sharp drop in its second outing after earning a lukewarm “C+” grade on Cinema Score. The indie release earned an estimated $1.8 million on Friday, with rivals expecting about $6.2 million and a 56% fall for this second weekend. That’s a much steeper decline than director Osgood Perkins’ last genre play at Neon, last summer’s breakout “Longlegs,” which also landed a C+ grade on Cinema Score but dropped only 46%.
Even without the same staying power though, “The Monkey” is in a strong position. Produced for around $10 million, the Stephen King adaptation has a shot at getting past a $24 million domestic total by the end of the weekend.
In fourth, Sony’s release of “Paddington in Peru” earned another $970,000 on Friday and is projecting $4.5 million for its third weekend of release. The StudioCanal production is now pacing a touch ahead of the humble Brit bear’s last adventure, “Paddington 2” in 2017. Total domestic gross for “Peru” should reach $31 million through Sunday.
Universal’s “Dog Man” looks to round out the top five, despite its availability as a premium digital rental and now more than a month into its theatrical release. The DreamWorks Animation caper earned $860,000 on Friday and is projecting $4 million in its fifth weekend of release — with an outside shot of surpassing $83 million by the end of the frame.
