HELSINKI — China is expanding its presence and capabilities in the strategically vital geostationary belt, raising security concerns due to unpredictable satellite movements, according to experts.
Participants in a panel on “A renewed space race” at Chatham House Space Security 2025 conference in London, March 5, identified Chinese spacecraft and behaviors in geostationary orbit that are unpredictable, hard to track, and of concern.
The geostationary orbit belt, or GEO, at 35,786 kilometers above the equator, sees spacecraft orbit at a speed that matches the rotation of the Earth, meaning they stay fixed in position in the sky as seen from the ground. The belt has strategic and commercial importance for communications, intelligence, and military operations.
China has been adding to its fleet of satellites in GEO in recent years with communications and remote sensing satellites, as well as classified spacecraft, described as experimental communications satellites, but with capabilities thought to include proximity maneuvers and satellite inspection, missile early warning, space situational awareness and electronic signals intelligence. Altering their orbit by tens of kilometers above or below the belt allows spacecraft to drift either west or east respectively, changing their position in GEO.
“There are a number of what the Chinese refer to as these experimental communication satellites that are out in GEO, and yet these GEO satellites, they’re sliding, or they’re moving very frequently across the GEO belt, which is a behavior that is very uncharacteristic of a satellite that’s intended to provide satellite communications,” Chief Master Sergeant Ron Lerch, deputy chief of Space Operations for Intelligence with the U.S. Space Force, said.
The latest in a series of such experimental satellites, TJS-15, launched March 9 from Xichang.
A number of Chinese spacecraft have been sweeping GEO and conducting targeted proximity maneuvers in order to approach and inspect satellites from other countries, potentially imaging them and even intercepting communications signals.
“China, at this point, is able to conduct very targeted proximity maneuvers, potentially even doing physical damage or listening to communications, etc. But they can now also do it, not quite unseen, but they’re very good at hiding what they’re doing until after the fact,” said Juliana Suess of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP).
While space domain awareness means hiding in GEO is not truly possible, as Suess clarified, China has demonstrated a capability to obscure its actions by using precise timing, shadowing techniques, and rapid maneuvers that can delay or confuse ground-based optical and radar detection. This all makes China potentially unpredictable going forward.
While China’s activities raise concerns, it is not alone in deploying maneuvering satellites in GEO. The U.S. and Russia also have classified satellites operating in and sweeping across the belt, as well as executing highly targeted proximity operations. Incidents of “cat and mouse” interactions have grown in recent years, with each party attempting to out-maneuver each other and get a glimpse of the other’s hardware and test counterspace and space situational awareness capabilities.
China has also recently added to its activities with a new satellite apparently set to test on-orbit servicing in GEO.
“Just this past January, the Chinese put on orbit what’s known as the Shijian-25, and this is the first time that they’ve publicly disclosed a capability on orbit to do refueling and servicing,” said Lerch.
Shijian-25 is an apparent followup to Shijian-21, an earlier satellite in a series dedicated to testing technologies and on-orbit operations. That satellite docked with a defunct Beidou navigation satellite and towed it to a graveyard orbit above the geostationary belt. Shijian-25 is stated to be for “satellite fuel replenishment and life extension service technology verification.”
Analysis from Integrity ISR in January showed that Shijian-25 is co-planar with Shijian-21, meaning the latter appears an ideal target for a refueling test. China has provided no details regarding the target or timeline for the mission.
The activities in GEO are part of China’s broader expansion of on-orbit infrastructure and capabilities. China has approximately 1,000 satellites in orbit as of now, marking a dramatic increase from around 40 satellites in 2010, according to Lerch.
“We [U.S. Space Force] see great risk right now because of the unprecedented growth, as well as the unmanaged competition,” Lerch said, regarding the wider space domain.
