The space industry is on the cusp of major growth as 2025 gets underway, even as multiple uncertainties loom.
Analysts are broadly optimistic that growing government support will help push the sector’s growth into a higher gear, helping attract an increasingly varied pool of investors.
Despite challenges including inflation and the potential for far-reaching U.S. tariffs on imports, researchers at Novaspace project the global space economy to soar 7% this year to $620 billion, nearly double a decade ago.
Government push
The incoming Trump administration’s renewed emphasis on space as a critical national security domain may provide a significant boost. Key programs ranging from missile defense to multi-orbit communications systems are expected to anchor growth, while the Space Force’s efforts to secure and streamline commercial partnerships continue to underscore an increasing reliance on private industry.
“Government budgets will set the pace, creating significant opportunities for both established contractors and newer, venture-funded providers,” said Carissa Christensen, CEO of space analytics firm BryceTech.
According to Novaspace, the space economy grew at a more modest 2% in 2024 to reach $596 billion, but this year should see far more activity as major satellite projects — such as Amazon’s Project Kuiper and Europe’s IRIS² sovereign broadband constellation — enter critical development or deployment phases.
Fundamental changes in satellite launch economics and frequency are also transforming industry capabilities and business prospects. SpaceX aims to conduct as many as 180 launches in 2025 after closing out 2024 with 134 Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy missions.
That figure is up from 96 in 2023 and more than the rest of the world combined.As SpaceX advances its colossal Starship rocket, other countries are also gearing up for increased launch activity. India, China, and Europe plan to ramp up their launches this year, including maiden flights from several new commercial players.
Chris Quilty, CEO of research firm Quilty Space, noted that staying ahead of China’s expanding presence in particular will drive the U.S. to step up space activities.“I’ve been covering the space sector for more than 20 years and I roll into 2025 probably more optimistic than I’ve ever been at the start of a year,” he said.
Emerging opportunities
Venture capital investment in space companies remains robust despite broader economic challenges.
According to Mark Boggett, CEO of early-stage space investor Seraphim, space technology investments are even trending toward 2021’s peak levels following consecutive quarters of growth. They are buoyed by clarity on defense spending for the next decade and interest from new investors such as sovereign wealth funds.
“Newspace capabilities, especially low-cost digital solutions, are in high demand, aligning perfectly with emerging defense and commercial needs,” Boggett said.
The fledgling direct-to-device satellite market also continues to show promise, and is poised for significant expansion as more companies hope to join SpaceX in getting regulatory approval to offer this emerging capability.
“Momentum around this market should pick up,” Novaspace’s Pleney said, “with projections reaching nearly 130 million average monthly users by 2032, making it a billion-dollar industry as early as 2027.” Direct-to-device users were projected to reach 24 million in 2024.
Other nascent sectors, such as satellite-based mineral exploration and in-space manufacturing, are attracting initial investments as the commercial industry diversifies and matures. Novaspace estimates the space economy — which includes applications and services that leverage navigation signals and other data derived from space-based infrastructure — to reach $944 billion by 2028.
This article first appeared in the January 2025 issue of SpaceNews Magazine.
