When white smoke billowed out of the chimney of the Sistine Chapel on March 13, 2013, alerting the public that the 115 cardinal electors inside had concluded their voting, few members of the public might have expected the Catholic Church’s 266th Pope to be Jorge Mario Bergoglio.
At 76, Bergoglio was considered too old to be included on most media lists of papabili, or likely candidates for Pope. Prior to his papacy, bishops and cardinals typically submitted their resignations at 75. And the cardinal electors, who have always elected one of their own ranks, have an age cap of 80.
Hailing from Buenos Aires, Argentina, Bergoglio became the first Latin American Pope and the first non-European Pope in over 1,200 years. He was also the first Jesuit Pope—a Catholic religious order that emphasizes service to the marginalized. Upon his election, Bergoglio took the name Francis after Saint Francis of Assisi, who was known for his asceticism and ministry to the poor. Overall, Francis was regarded as less conservative than his predecessor Pope Benedict XVI.
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With Francis’ death on Monday, at age 88, up to 135 eligible cardinal electors will decide on his successor. One hundred and eight—or 80%—of them were appointed by Francis during his papacy. It’s a fact that has left some wondering if the late Pope essentially “packed the court” to guarantee a continuation of his legacy. But experts suggest it’ll be as difficult to predict as Francis’ own election was.
“The history of the papacy of many hundreds of years suggests it’s very difficult for a Pope to control the election that follows his own death,” Miles Pattenden, a historian of the Catholic Church at Oxford University tells TIME. Cardinals are “their own men,” and even those picked by Francis may have their own opinions.
“It’s very simplistic to say cardinals just vote along ideological lines as though they’re part of political parties,” Pattenden says. “That’s not how the Vatican works.”
Pattenden also points to an Italian proverb: “After a fat Pope comes a thin one.”
“The idea of that is essentially that the cardinals very often focus on what they didn’t like about the previous Pope, all the things they thought were his faults and flaws, and they look for someone who remedies those.” The first question on cardinals’ minds will be whether they want change or continuity.
This conclave is already likely to be different from those in the past, however, Pattenden says. Firstly, it’s the largest number of eligible cardinal electors—in fact, it’s the first time that the number of eligible electors at a conclave has exceeded the traditional cap of 120, although Pattenden says it’s unlikely that the cap will be enforced. Secondly, the cardinals now are more geographically diverse than ever.
In 2013, 51% of cardinal electors were European. Now, around 39% are, while around 18% come from the Asia-Pacific, 18% from Latin America and the Caribbean, 12% come from Sub-Saharan Africa, 10% from North America, and 3% come from the Middle East and North Africa.
Francis played a big role in that shift. Of the 108 he appointed, 38% came from Europe, 19% from Latin America and the Caribbean, 19% from the Asia-Pacific, 12% from sub-Saharan Africa, 7% from North America, and 4% from the Middle East and North Africa.
Francis appointed cardinals from 25 countries that had never before had one. His appointments include Chibly Langlois, the first cardinal from Haiti, Charles Maung Bo, the first cardinal from Myanmar, and Hyderabad Anthony Poola, the first of India’s Dalit caste.
On many papabili lists, the range of candidates include several who would be historic firsts as pontiffs from Asia, such as Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, or Africa, such as Ghanaian Cardinal Peter Turkson.
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Francis prioritized inclusion within the Vatican, Pattenden explains, and so in appointing cardinals, he looked across the world, often to small Catholic communities that had not been represented before: He felt that “it shouldn’t just be the case that big, well-established, rich, old Catholic communities get representation all the time,” but ideologically, “Francis can’t necessarily have known how all of these new cardinals will think, certainly their colleagues won’t know—they may not even know themselves.”
Carlos Eire, a professor of history and religious studies at Yale University, however, thinks it’s likely that those Francis appointed will indeed lean ideologically left, noting that Francis did not appoint many conservative bishops to the College of Cardinals and that, while geographic diversity was a priority of his, theological diversity was not. Francis, for example, appointed American Robert McElroy in 2022, who is known for his advocacy on immigration and the environment and inclusion of LGBTQ+ Catholics, while reportedly bypassing more conservative archbishops. “When it comes to religious issues,” says Eire, “it is also highly likely that they will lean away from traditionalism.”
“Voting for a Pope is not much different from any other kind of voting. The voters have their preferences,” adds Eire. “The only difference between this conclave and the House of Representatives or the European Parliament is that the cardinals pray for guidance from the Holy Spirit.”
But, Pattenden says, it could come down more to charisma, competence, and piety than to ideology.
On that measure, the geographic diversity of the College of Cardinals could make this conclave particularly unpredictable. “They don’t know each other as well as previous groups of cardinals will have done, and that’s bound to have an impact,” Pattenden says. “When you have to focus on one person’s name to write down on that ballot paper, it may or may not be easier if you actually know the guy or if you’ve just met him a week or two before.”
If the result of that favors better known cardinals, Pattenden says Tagle from the Philippines, who is known as one of the most charismatic figures in the college, or Pietro Parolin, who is the highest-ranking cardinal in the electing conclave, would be frontrunners.
If neither of those two—or any other candidate—achieves the required two-thirds majority to win, it’s likely that cardinals “start casting a wider net,” says Pattenden, to candidates who may not have been their first choice.
“It’s a very secretive process … The Church is very, very careful that we don’t really know what happened,” Pattenden says, and what reports do come out later are often still not verified.
“This matters a lot in terms of the theology of the election: the idea is that God, through the Holy Spirit, comes down on the cardinals and inspires them and their choice. But the more that we know about what was said to who and who voted for what, the less plausible that idea is.”
