“Red One,” a Christmas-set action comedy starring Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson as Santa’s head of security, unwrapped a soft $34.1 million from 4,032 North American theaters in its box office debut.
Those ticket sales were enough to top the domestic box office, ending the three-week reign of “Venom: The Last Dance.” However, the Amazon MGM film cost $250 million before accounting for global marketing efforts of roughly $100 million. So “Red One” is bound to spark yet another debate about what qualifies as a success at a time when streaming services are scrambling traditional business models. Case in point: “Joker: Folie à Deux,” which was released by Warner Bros., was instantly labeled a flop with $37 million to start against a $200 million budget. But last year’s “Killers of the Flower Moon,” from Apple and director Martin Scorsese, was categorized more favorably after opening to $23 million despite a similarly huge production cost.
Although a $34 million domestic debut isn’t terrible for an original Christmas flick that was initially commissioned for streaming, “Red One” will need to play in theaters through the holiday season to justify its massive price tag. Critics disliked the movie (it holds a 33% “rotten” average on Rotten Tomatoes). But lucky for Amazon MGM, audiences were charmed by the story about the kidnapping of Santa (J.K. Simmons), whose hostage situation sparks a rescue mission by his North Pole body guard (Johnson) and a skilled bounty hunter (Chris Evans). The film landed an “A-” grade on CinemaScore from inaugural crowds.
“The production cost was an estimated $250 million. That’s a lot of money for a Santa Claus story,” says David A. Gross, who runs the movie consulting firm Franchise Entertainment Research. “The opening is not a disaster, but it’s not enough against $250 million before marketing and distribution. A film like this should not have been made for more than $150 million.”
He adds, “We don’t see a double standard for streamers and studios. Amazon, Apple and Netflix are not in the business of losing money.”
Overseas, where Warner Bros. is handling distribution, “Red One” brought in an additional $14.7 million from 75 markets in its second weekend. This brings the film’s tally to $50 million internationally and $84.1 million globally.
“We have to see how this plays into the holidays. We have big competition coming behind us… that’s no secret,” says Amazon MGM’s head of theatrical distribution Kevin Wilson of upcoming releases “Wicked,” “Gladiator II” and “Moana 2.” “But we offer something a little different than those movies.”
Amazon MGM argues that big-budget tentpoles don’t need to score on the big screen to be deemed a winner. The deep-pocketed streamer cares about much more than box office grosses and views the big screen as a way to generate buzz for Prime Video. Yet viewership data from streaming services aren’t reported as uniformly as theatrical revenues. So it’s impossible to know if the financial gamble ever pays off — though a clue will be whether Amazon MGM greenlights “Red One Two.”
“Whether or not people like it, the value of these movies is different for our business model,” says Wilson. “If we can put these movies out theatrically and cover our P&A [print and advertising] costs, why wouldn’t we? We’re getting a massive marketing campaign that’s being paid for before the film gets to streaming.”
In a distant second place, “Venom 3” added an additional $7.3 million from 3,421 theaters in its fourth weekend of release. So far, the third and final entry in Sony’s Tom Hardy-led symbiote saga has generated $127.6 million at the domestic box office and 436.1 million globally. “The Last Dance” is still trailing its franchise predecessors, 2018’s “Venom” ($213 million domestically and $856 million globally) and 2021’s “Let There Be Carnage” ($213 million domestically and $506 million worldwide). But the threequel cost a relatively trim $120 million (at least compared to other comic book adaptations), so it’ll be decently positioned in its theatrical run.
Lionsgate’s family friendly “The Best Christmas Pageant Ever” secured the No. 3 spot with $5.4 million from 3,020 venues, declining 50% from its debut. After two weekends on the big screen, the feel-good holiday film has grossed $19.9 million in North America.
A24’s horror film “Heretic” dropped to fourth place with $5.16 million from 3,230 screens, also dipping about 50% from its opening weekend. The cat-and-mouse thriller that follows two young Mormon missionaries to the door of a sinister Englishman has collected $20.4 million after 10 days of release.
Universal and DreamWorks Animation’s “The Wild Robot” rounded out the top five with $4.3 million from 2,894 theaters in its eighth frame. Ticket sales for the family film have minimally dropped week over week (this weekend was down only 35% despite the movie being available to rent on premium video-on-demand), bringing its domestic tally to $137.7 million and its global total to $308 million.
With “Red One” failing to bring the holiday cheer, overall domestic box office revenues remain down more than 11% from 2023 and nearly 27% from 2019, according to Comscore. Moviegoing is expected to explode around Thanksgiving when three blockbuster hopefuls — Paramount’s “Gladiator II” and Universal’s “Wicked” on Nov. 22, and Disney’s “Moana 2” on Nov. 27 — land on the big screen.
“The one-two punch of ‘Wicked’ and ‘Gladiator II’ are poised to deliver, along with “Moana 2,” one of the biggest Thanksgiving periods in box office history,” says senior Comscore analyst Paul Dergarabedian. “And it can’t get here soon enough.”
