Addis Ababa, — The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) has released its seasonal climate forecast for March to May (MAM) 2025, indicating that most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa are likely to experience below-normal rainfall.
The forecast is particularly significant as the MAM season contributes up to 60 percent of the annual rainfall in many areas of the region, making it a crucial period for agricultural and water resources.
According to ICPAC, much of Somalia, eastern and northern Kenya, southern and north-eastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, coastal Eritrea, western South Sudan, southern and western Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and north-western Tanzania are expected to receive below-average rainfall.
Additionally, the cross-border areas of Ethiopia-Kenya-Somalia, north-eastern Ethiopia, southern Eritrea, and parts of south-western South Sudan have an enhanced likelihood of below-normal conditions.
While the majority of the region is expected to experience dry conditions, wetter-than-normal conditions are anticipated in most parts of Tanzania, eastern Uganda, eastern South Sudan, and western Ethiopia.
Furthermore, there is a high probability that seasonal rainfall will exceed 200 mm in south-western Ethiopia, western Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.
In terms of temperature, the forecast suggests a higher likelihood of warmer-than-normal conditions across most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, with Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, northern Somalia, and northern Kenya facing the highest probabilities of experiencing elevated temperatures.
The onset of rainfall is expected to be early to normal in most parts of the region, except for localized areas in central Kenya, southern Ethiopia, and central Somalia, where a delayed start is likely.
The projected climatic conditions are likely to have significant socio-economic impacts, particularly on vulnerable populations, with women, children, older persons, and persons with disabilities expected to be the most affected.
ICPAC has called upon governments and stakeholders to take proactive measures to mitigate the anticipated adverse effects and ensure that the most at-risk communities are adequately supported.
Dr. Abdi Fidar, the Officer-in-Charge at ICPAC, noted that “As the IGAD region faces increasing climate variability and extremes–droughts, floods, and rising temperatures–platforms like GHACOFs are essential for building a shared understanding of risks and fostering collaboration to mitigate their impacts.”
“The theme of this forum, Climate Services for Closing the Early Warning Gap Together, underscores the critical role of actionable, timely, and accurate climate information in bridging gaps in preparedness and response,” he added.
