Embraer has forecasted that there will be 10,500 orders for new jets and turboprops over the next 20 years, estimating that the total value of these orders could hit US$680 billion.
Embraer released its Market Outlook 2025, which is its annual 20-year forecast for commercial aircraft deliveries in the sub-150-seat category, on June 12, 2025, ahead of the upcoming Paris Air Show.
“As countries and regions pursue greater strategic autonomy, the demand for regional access will continue to grow,” said Arjan Meijer, Embraer President and CEO of Commercial Aviation. “We believe mixed fleets that combine small and large narrowbody aircraft are essential for that long-term growth.”
In the outlook, the manufacturer predicts that global passenger traffic will increase at an average annual rate of 3.9% (CAGR) from 2025 to 2044.
In the next 20 years, China is expected to experience the highest growth, with Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPKs) rising by 5.7% each year. Following China, Latin America will grow at 4.7%, while Africa and the Middle East will each see a growth of 4.4%.
The Asia Pacific region will grow at 4.1%, Europe, including the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), will grow at 3.3%, and North America will have a growth rate of 2.4%. By the end of 2044, Asia Pacific is expected to account for 39% of global RPKs, while Europe and North America will jointly hold 37%.
To meet rising demand, the global market will require 10,500 new aircraft with up to 150 seats, which includes 8,720 jets and 1,780 turboprops. According to the outlook, the total market value of these aircraft could reach $680 billion.
Of the 8,720 jet deliveries expected globally, North America is set to get the biggest portion with 2,680 aircraft. Europe & CIS will follow with 1,990 aircraft deliveries, then China with 1,500, Asia Pacific with 1,050, Latin America with 770, Africa with 380, and finally, the Middle East with 350.
In the turboprop segment, of the 1,780 anticipated deliveries, the Asia Pacific region will take the lead with 640 aircraft. North America follows with 280, Europe & CIS with 260, Africa with 220, China with 200, Latin America with 160, and the Middle East with 20 new aircraft deliveries.
