In a year where clear frontrunners have been slow to emerge, the Golden Globes offered crucial hints about which films and performances might emerge to lead awards season. Demi Moore appears to be the new best actress frontrunner after her win for “The Substance” in the best actress in a musical or comedy feature category.
The body horror thriller, written and directed by Coralie Fargeat, premiered at Cannes, where it was acquired by Mubi. It has maintained momentum as a critical darling. Moore’s victory on Sunday night over Mikey Madison (“Anora”), Karla Sofía Gascón (“Emilia Pérez”) and Cynthia Erivo (“Wicked”) is the type of moment that can shift the awards race just as Oscar ballots are set to go out later this week.
The 61-year-old actress delivered a heartfelt speech about the longevity of her career, generating the kind of goodwill that has helped propel past winners in tight races, such as Michelle Yeoh for “Everything Everywhere All at Once.”
But Moore’s win wasn’t the only significant moment of the night.
Fernanda Torres in ‘I’m Still Here’ (2024)
Sony Pictures Classics
In the lead actress in a drama category, where A-listers like Angelina Jolie (“Maria”) and Nicole Kidman (“Babygirl”) were widely predicted to win, Brazilian actress Fernanda Torres surprised the room by taking home the prize for her performance in the non-English language drama “I’m Still Here.” Coming 30 years after her mother Fernanda Montenegro was nominated for “Central Station,” the win gives Torres a vital boost in a category where it’s notoriously difficult for international actors to secure Oscar attention. Still, the overall Oscar best actress race remains crowded. Aggregator sites like Gold Derby show four Golden Globe comedy/musical nominees — Moore, Erivo, Madison and Gascón — currently hold top spots in many predictions.
However, history suggests that there will be outside challengers. Only three times in Oscar history have three Golden Globe comedy/musical nominees made it into the best actress lineup. Notable years include 2005, when nominees Judi Dench (“Mrs. Henderson Presents”), Keira Knightley (“Pride & Prejudice”) and eventual Oscar winner Reese Witherspoon (“Walk the Line”) were recognized, and 1964, when Julie Andrews (“Mary Poppins”), Sophia Loren (“Marriage Italian Style”) and Debbie Reynolds (“The Unsinkable Molly Brown”) all earned nods. Four comedy/musical actresses, however, have never made the Oscar lineup in the same year. Could this be the year to break the trend?
Sebastian Stan in ‘The Apprentice’ and ‘A Different Man’
The Apprentice: Briarcliff Entertainment; A Different Man: A24
On the best actor in a comedy or musical feature side, Sebastian Stan secured a pivotal win for his role in “A Different Man.” The recognition could help Stan muscle his way into the best actor Oscar race. However, my instinct is it would be for his other Golden Globe-nominated performance, for best actor in a drama feature for “The Apprentice,” in which Stan plays a young Donald Trump. While it may complicate matters, as vote-splitting could weaken his chances, Stan’s mention on the BAFTA longlist last week was clutch. If Stan can consolidate support and fend off competitors like Daniel Craig (“Queer”), he could still hear his name called on Jan. 17, when Oscar nominations are announced.
Brady Corbet’s historical epic “The Brutalist” was the big winner on the drama side, taking home best picture (drama), best director and best actor for Adrien Brody. The 215-minute film, distributed by A24, has been a critical success since its debut at Venice.
In his acceptance speech, Corbet acknowledged that the film was initially seen as a tough sell. However, its strong showing at the Globes, where it triumphed over traditional biopics like “A Complete Unknown” and the religious thriller “Conclave,” signals its growing awards momentum.
Still, history suggests caution: In the last decade, only three Golden Globe drama winners have gone on to win the Oscar for best picture — “Oppenheimer” (2023), “Nomadland” (2020) and “Moonlight” (2016). Ergo, watch out for screenplay winner “Conclave” to make a play for the top prize, which would be the first best picture winner ever for Focus Features.
Zoe Saldaña in ‘Emilia Perez‘
Courtesy of EFA
Netflix may finally be close to achieving its long-coveted best picture Oscar with Jacques Audiard’s Spanish-language musical “Emilia Pérez.” The film won four Golden Globes, including best picture (comedy/musical), supporting actress for Zoe Saldaña, international feature and original song (“El Mal”). The streaming giant has come up short in past years with films like “Roma” (2018), “Mank” (2020) and “The Power of the Dog” (2021).
With “Emilia Pérez” also representing France in the international feature category at the Oscars, it could bring the country its first win in over 30 years. The last French film to win the category was “Indochine” in 1992. Perhaps we have a new “Parasite” on our hands.
In the animated feature category, the silent movie “Flow” defeated heavyweights like “Inside Out 2” and “The Wild Robot.” Its win positions it as a potential favorite at Critics Choice next Sunday, but that group typically stays within the mainstream. I do think it helped secure an Oscar nom for international feature, representing Latvia.
Meanwhile, Universal’s box office smash “Wicked” took home just one award for cinematic and box office achievement, losing in top categories. Neon’s “Anora” is still very much a contender, ,despite going home empty-handed from the Globes.
History shows that Globe comedy and musical winners have not always claimed Oscar victory. Recent examples include “The Banshees of Inisherin,” which won over “Everything Everywhere All at Once” at the Globes in 2022, but then lost to it on Oscar night. Similarly, “The Grand Budapest Hotel” charmed its way to a Globe win in 2014 but lost the Oscar to “Birdman.”
With several contenders making gains and others facing statistical challenges, the Golden Globes is proving an already unpredictable awards season has more questions lingering.
