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How Close Are We to a Government Shutdown?

How Close Are We to a Government Shutdown?


The U.S. government is set to shut down next weekend unless Congress manages to strike a last-minute agreement to pass a funding bill before the March 14 deadline. The uncertain situation has left many Americans anxiously wondering how a potential government shutdown would impact them.

A government shutdown occurs when Congress fails to approve new spending for federal agencies. The current spending law, which former President Joe Biden signed in December, expires on March 14.

During a shutdown, the government can only spend money on essential services, such as those related to law enforcement and public safety. That means hundreds of thousands of federal workers won’t receive a timely paycheck, while others will be furloughed, which could inflict severe financial hardships on some American families at a time when many are still struggling with elevated prices due to inflation and uncertainty over the Trump administration’s ongoing workforce cuts.

The last government shutdown occurred during President Donald Trump’s first term, in December 2018. It lasted for 34 days, the longest government shutdown in the modern era. More recently, looming shutdowns have been averted at the last minute, with lawmakers scrambling to reach a temporary agreement to keep the government running. But the razor-thin Republican majority, along with tension over recent federal funding cuts from Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency, makes this situation particularly volatile.

Here’s what to know about the prospects of a shutdown and what the impact of one would be.

What’s going on with the negotiations in Congress?

Republicans control the White House and both chambers of Congress. As of Thursday, House Republicans are pursuing a stopgap measure—known as a continuing resolution, or CR—to keep the government funded through the end of September at current levels, a plan that has Trump’s backing.

On Tuesday, House Speaker Mike Johnson acknowledged that some GOP lawmakers have “hesitation” over backing the six-month extension. “I think once people understand the necessity of it, I think they’ll get on board and we’ll pass it,” he told reporters. A group of House Republicans met with Trump at the White House on Wednesday, as party leaders look to get members on board.

Republicans are facing pressure to pass the CR without support from Democrats—no easy task in either chamber. In the House, Republicans have a razor-thin majority, and are not expected to draw the support of all their members. To avoid previous shutdowns, both House Speaker Mike Johnson and his predecessor Kevin McCarthy relied on votes from Democrats. In the Senate, Republicans have 53 seats, but need 60 votes to avoid a filibuster and pass the bill. 

What role are Democrats playing in the negotiations?

Top Democrats in Congress remain sharply opposed to the six-month funding extension as Trump and Musk continue to undermine Congress’ authority by unilaterally slashing government programs. Some Democrats doubt Trump will even abide by the next spending bill, making them even less inclined to vote for it. 

Yet Republicans are signaling they will blame Democrats if a shutdown happens. Some Democrats fear that the public might agree with them—an outcome that would not only hurt them politically, but potentially spur Musk to further slash funding from federal agencies

Johnson told NBC’s Meet the Press on Sunday that “Democrats have to help negotiate this” and that “they’ve, to this point, shown no interest in finding a reasonable solution for that.” He added that House Republicans are looking to “freeze funding at current levels, to make sure that the government can stay open while we begin to incorporate all these savings that we’re finding through the DOGE effort and these other sources of revenue that President Trump’s policies are bringing to the table.”

Democrats stress that the onus is on the party with the majority to keep the government funded. “House Republicans are marching the country towards a government shutdown that was started by Elon Musk,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told reporters on Tuesday.

How would a government shutdown impact Americans?

Here are some of the ways a government shutdown would immediately impact Americans:

Federal employees and military personnel

If the government shuts down, tens of thousands of federal employees would be furloughed and sent home without pay. Those who are deemed essential workers, such as employees in public safety and national security, would report to work without pay. Once federal funding resumes, the government is required by law to repay federal employees and military personnel. Federal contractors would not be compensated for missed time.

Each federal agency decides which services and employees are essential, which typically includes law enforcement officers, national security agents, active duty military personnel, and federal prison guards. Members of the military and federal law enforcement, for example, would continue going to work, while civilian personnel working for the Defense Department would be furloughed.

Federal employees should note that those who work during a shutdown when they aren’t supposed to could face fines or a prison term under the Antideficiency Act.

National parks, public spaces, and airports

Recreational facilities funded by the federal government would be forced to close, meaning travelers and tourists may be unable to visit national park facilities or the Smithsonian museums in Washington during a shutdown. The National Park Service estimated that a 2013 government shutdown led to a $500 million loss in visitor spending nationwide. 

Some airports may also experience disruptions and delays, such as during the 2019 shutdown when air traffic controllers working without pay threatened to walk off the job—a move that helped end the shutdown. Passport offices in certain regions could also close, causing inconvenience for those planning international travel.

Federal safety-net programs

While food stamps and other nutrition aid programs would continue during a shutdown, federal agencies may have to reduce support after the March 14 funding deadline if the shutdown persists for an extended period. An extended closure could lead to disruptions in childcare programs like Head Start, which offers grants to childcare centers for families that have trouble paying for preschool. 

Federal offices for these programs could also have reduced services for people needing to sign up or looking for help. 

What remains open during a shutdown?

Agencies that have already received funding approval or operate on a permanent funding basis would continue to operate as usual. For instance, the Postal Service and entitlement programs, such as Social Security and Medicare, would continue to run during a shutdown because they are funded by permanent appropriations that do not need to be renewed every year.

Veterans Affairs benefits, including pensions and disability checks, would also continue as normal under a shutdown.

The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) will also continue normal operations during a government shutdown due to funding approved through Congress last year. Taxpayers remain obligated to fulfill their tax obligations, and services like tax return processing carry on unaffected.



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