What does Trump 2.0 mean for Africa? In his first term, he dismissed the continent as full of ‘shithole countries’. Now, with a big majority in Congress and an appetite to take over other countries for their strategic value or resources, is Africa under threat of invasion? Kasirim Nwuke considers the options.
Before the November elections in the US, Many people thought that Trump was finished politically, that he would never sit in the Oval Office again and that he would remain in Mar-a-Lago sulking. Loads of people, fed by CNN thought he would be going to prison. But of course he is back as President of one of the strongest war machines in world history.
Among most of Africa’s intelligentsia, according to social media, there is very little love for Trump. Many of Africa’s educated class are democracy-loving liberals. Most, having been influenced by CNN, BBC, and other mainstream liberal Western media dismissed Trump and completely misread his popularity among some American voters.
It is doubtful that many African governments and African continental institutions tried to Trump-proof their countries and institutions and as they did not expect him to win. Those Africans who bucked public opinion and voiced support for Trump and believed that Trump would defeat Biden and win a second were dismissed as perhaps unhinged. Now Trump is here. The reality is before us and it is time for African governments to prepare for a US administration that clearly does not care about multilateral organizations, international aid, the global Rules based Order or international law.
It is no surprise that the new US administration does not care much about Europe and NATO – it is a continuation of Trump’s stance from his first stint as President.
President Trump seems to be impressed by autocratic and populist leaders. He thus likes Russia’s Vladimir Putin, China’s Xi Jinping, and perhaps North Korea’s Kim Jong Un. These are the contemporaneous leaders that Trump fashions himself after – leaders who claim they are ready and willing to do anything, including new territorial conquests, to advance their national interests.
For the new US administration, it seems there are only three poles of power: Washington DC; Moscow, and Beijing. Smaller countries that Trump will consider useful for projecting US power in specific regions will be like little stars around the constellation of the three poles of power.
Trump has indeed called for a halt of aid to all countries apart from Israel and Egypt. The loyalty to Israel is par for the course of all US administrations but why Egypt has been singled out for his favour remains a mystery.
Trump 2.0, given that he will not face another election, is unlikely to care about Africa as a region; he described it a full of “shithole countries” during his first term.
Multilateral institutions and treaties will not be spared the transformative disruption of Trump 2.0. He has already issued an order withdrawing the United States from the Paris (Climate) Accord, and the World Health Organization. These decisions were not unexpected. It is also unclear whether the United States Agency for International Development (known by its acronym, USAID) will continue to exist.
One of the Executive Orders that President Trump signed imposes a 90-day funding freeze on USAID to enable a review of “such programs for programmatic efficiency and consistency with the foreign policy of the United States.”
It is still unclear what his attitude to the United Nations Organisation will be. The United Nations has been an epicenter of what many people call “Woke culture”. It has tried to take account of race and gender in every aspect of the organisation.
Trump said in his inaugural address that he “will end the (US) government policy of trying to socially engineer race and gender into everyday life. We will forge a society that is colorblind and merit- based.” Will he extend this policy to international organizations like the UN that receive significant US funding? Probably.
In the interim, it can be safely guessed that President Trump will allow the United Nations headquarter to remain in New York. After all, the annual UN Summits provide him a unique opportunity to address world leaders, seek and get their applause, and project US power.
But it is unlikely that he will pay US dues to the organisation on time or care much about supporting the UN’s work in poor countries unless they line up behind US policies.
He has issued an Executive Order renaming the Gulf of Mexico, Gulf of the Americas (or something like that.) He has started deporting undocumented immigrants and very ready to impose stiff sanctions and use other instruments of coercion against countries that refuse to accept their deported citizens.
The question then is “What does Trump 2.0 mean for Africa? This question is important given that no African country is in a position to act independently. Trump did not even bother to invite an African Head of State or government to his inauguration/
It seems clear that global governance under Trump 2.0 will be very, very different from what it been before. There will be less multilateralism. The World Trade Organisation (WTO) may be rendered impotent by the trade wars that Trump will unleash with China, Europe, Canada, Mexico. It is unclear if any country considered a threat to the US will be spared Trump’s tariffs. He might even withdraw the US from the WTO.
“America First Trade Policy”, one of the Executive Orders Trump signed after his swearing-in ceremony, orders “the Secretary of Treasury in consultation with the Secretary of Commerce and the Secretary of Homeland Security to investigate the feasibility of establishing … and implanting an External Revenue Service (ERS) to collect tariffs, duties, and other foreign trade-related revenues”. This could, if implemented, be disruptive to the WTO governed international trading system.
As well, arms control treaties will either be repealed or allowed to lapse. The exercise and use of military power will be the main instrument of diplomacy. Consider Israel and the Palestinians, Türkiye and Syria.
Preparations for war?
Decades of successful international development and cooperation based on the equality of votes in international organisations may be at risk of being destroyed. If military power will increasingly be relied on by the US, Russia, Israel, Turkey, and China, then one can expect that countries, small and big, will have to spend enormous amounts of money on defense.
The war in Ukraine shows that advances in military technology have been extremely rapid in recent times. The science and technology embedded in these new systems are way beyond the science, technology, and innovative capabilities of all African countries, except perhaps South Africa.
Not only are the advanced countries developing new weapons and systems, they are also manufacturing them at a rapid rate as if in expectation of a war any time soon. For example, Oreshnik Russia’s superfast and undetectable and unstoppable missile system, 6th generation stealth fighter jets, a growing mountain of drones capable of incredible destruction, germ warfare agents, cyber attacks do not bode well for world peace. Countries with nuclear capability are probably increasing their stock of nuclear warheads and readying their nuclear forces.
Why are countries preparing for war?. It is, in my view, because the world is running out of raw materials and other natural resources. This will be a war over natural resources (and raw materials) to maintain existing lifestyles and standards of living in the major economies. If there is no international collective action to manage this new arms race, WW III may arrive at our doorsteps sooner..
How should Africa respond to Trump 2.0?
In this new Trumpian “America First: world”, African countries are undoubtedly at great risk both militarily (mainly from internal conflicts) and economically (from inability to compete on the global stage).
It is thus imperative that they come together as a matter of urgency for the continent’s security and the security of their people. It means greater emphasis on strengthening regional integration. In this regard, it is important that ECOWAS leaders and citizens do their utmost to prevent their regional disintegration. United, stronger, more purposeful regional communities such as ECOWAS, SADC, EAC are existential necessity for Africa’s small countries – now more than ever before.
Major natural resources endowed countries, Nigeria, South Africa, the DRC must develop some independent military capacity as a matter of urgency. This will not be easy or cheap as they would have to invest heavily in machine-building industries, and in science, technology and innovation while buying weapons from friendly countries as a short-term measure.
There is an arms race and African countries must join it if they are to survive. All countries must diversify their economies. In the event of a war, neutrality can only be guaranteed by some degree of supply chain independence. This is where the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) comes in.
In the light of unfolding developments and possible threats to the system of global governance, African countries should make the AfCFTA serve their security and defence needs, in addition to their trade needs.
The export bans of personal protective equipment (PPE) at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic by major producing countries exposed global supply chains as chains of dependence. African countries will therefore be better protected trading more amongst themselves than with the rest of the world.
Without a strong African integration in science, technology and innovation, African countries will be incapable of defending themselves in the event of an attack from external actors. Further, if there are any lessons from the way the West has conducted the economic dimension of the war in Ukraine, there is no safety in neutrality.
Trump 2.0 and the disruptive developments in global governance that it is going to instigate confer urgency on the African Union Commission leadership elections coming up later this quarter during the African Union Summit.
Who leads the African Union Commission is, under these trying times, especially important. These AUC leadership elections which will be held in February may be the most important African Union leadership elections in this and the next generation. Given the urgency and imperatives of the time we are in, the African Union Commission must be led by people who care about the future of the continent and her peoples, have a clear understanding of these treacherous and unstable times, and the courage and independence to ably lead the continent through it.
