The Academy Awards have staged some iconic showdowns. Think of the tension around “La La Land” versus “Moonlight,” “12 Years a Slave” versus “Gravity” or “The Godfather” versus “Cabaret.” Each was a nail-biter that kept viewers on the edge of their seats. But what happens when six films — “Anora,” “The Brutalist,” “A Complete Unknown,” “Conclave,” “Emilia Pérez” and “Wicked” — are all serious contenders for Hollywood’s most coveted prize? Enter “The Year Without the Frontrunner,” as Variety aptly dubbed it.
So, what is the pathway for each contender?
With 13 nominations, “Emilia Pérez” seems to have the logical edge (although recent controversies could derail that assertion). It has key guild nods and below-the-line Oscar mentions. But in this unpredictable year, historical trends are no guarantee. Major upcoming ceremonies like DGA, PGA and SAG may clarify the race — or make it even messier.
After winning big at the Golden Globes, “Emilia Pérez” could achieve victory for the streamer with the same category haul — supporting actress (Zoe Saldaña), international feature, original song and best picture. However, many don’t consider the Spanish-language musical a favorite to win any of the upcoming guild awards (PGA voting closes on Jan. 31, and DGA closes on Dec. 7). Would the movie be considered viable with only a Golden Globe win for best picture (comedy or musical) under its belt? Since the expanded era in 2009, the only Globe winners for comedy/musicals that matched the Academy were “The Artist” (2011) and “Green Book” (2018).
At the DGA Awards, Brady Corbet’s 215-minute epic “The Brutalist” seems poised for success. It has earned the most critics’ prizes of the season, a Globe win and 10 Oscar nominations. But its ambitious length could be a liability.
Best picture is often about the most “liked” film, not necessarily the “best.” Past epics like Jane Campion’s “The Power of the Dog” and Alfonso Cuarón’s “Roma” dominated at BAFTA and DGA but stumbled under the Oscars’ preferential ballot system.
Adding to the challenges, “The Brutalist” was snubbed for a SAG cast ensemble nom, which historically has been a dealbreaker. Only four films — “Braveheart” (1995), “The Shape of Water” (2017), “Green Book” (2018) and “Nomadland” (2020) — have overcome this hurdle. There’s also the question regarding how many Oscars the film can win. Adrien Brody’s bid for his second Oscar statuette and at least two tech prizes for cinematography (Lol Crawley) and original score (Daniel Blumberg) will be vital to its ultimate haul.
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Universal’s “Wicked” and Focus Features’ “Conclave” bring unique narratives but face critical obstacles. Both were shut out of the directing race. Historically, this has been a fatal flaw, but recent winners like “Argo” (2012) and “CODA” (2021) prove it’s possible to triumph without your director attached.
Although “Wicked” boasts compelling themes of acceptance and inclusion, it lacks a screenplay nomination. Only seven films in Oscar history have won best picture without a screenplay nod, the last being “Titanic” (1997). For a movie that won without both directing and writing, you’d have to go back to “Grand Hotel” (1932). Coincidentally, the last film to win without taking home either of those categories was “Chicago” (2002), the last time a musical triumphed at the ceremony. The musical’s hopes of defying gravity rest on acting nominations for Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande, with one needing to secure a win. The last film to win without taking home at least a prize for acting, directing, or screenplay? Alfred Hitchcock’s “Rebecca” (1940). Hence, the blockbuster musical must run up the numbers in the tech categories.
Meanwhile, “Conclave” echoes “Argo” with its focus on corruption and politics. Berger’s Vatican thriller has a shot at adapted screenplay and editing, but will need either a momentum-building BAFTA haul or a PGA victory to stay viable.
Searchlight Pictures’ “A Complete Unknown” arrived late in the season, and last-minute releases rarely prevail. The last such victor was “Million Dollar Baby” (2004). James Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic has gained traction with guilds but missed an editing nom, a potential red flag. However, it’s undeniable the 1960s-era film is peaking. A quintessential “boomer” movie, the film is massively popular with older Academy voters, conveying a sentiment that screams: “They don’t make em’ like this anymore.”
In addition to star Timothée Chalamet‘s successful hosting (and musical) stint on “Saturday Night Live,” the movie could achieve what “1917” (2019) failed to do against “Parasite” — drop into the race at the last minute — and win it all.
Sean Baker’s Palme d’Or winner “Anora” has earned nominations at every major guild. Critics adore it, and it’s the presumed frontrunner for original screenplay. So why isn’t it the clear favorite? It hasn’t won any major awards (yet), and it’s unclear how many of its six nominations will translate to statuettes. The favorite for WGA, only “Moonlight” (2016), was able to take home the gold with a single stop on the guild circuit. The film will also likely need Baker to surpass some showy directorial achievements for Neon to claim its second-ever best picture winner. The last movie to win only three awards for picture, directing, and screenplay? “Midnight Cowboy” (1969).
And then there’s genre bias that typically factors into consideration. Dramas like “Spotlight” (2015) have triumphed with just an additional screenplay win, but the Oscars haven’t been friendly to comedies or their directors. While many Oscar winners have incorporated comedic elements, Woody Allen is the last straightforward comedy directing winner for “Annie Hall” (1977).
I believe PGA will be the most crucial bellwether, as it uses the same preferential ballot system as the Oscars. The PGA has often predicted best picture winners — and shown that divisive films about a woman falling in love with a fish (“The Shape of Water”) or featuring hot dog fingers (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) can be rewarded.
If “Emilia” or “Brutalist” — both divisive among voters — wins PGA, that will solidify the film’s frontrunner status. If not, the Oscars could mirror the chaotic split of 2015, when “The Big Short,” “The Revenant” and “Spotlight” each won major guild awards, with Oscar aligning with SAG. This year, the SAG Awards occur after final Oscar voting closes, meaning they won’t directly influence the Academy’s decision.
With no clear leader, this year’s race is as unknowable as any in history. And isn’t that what makes for a must-see Oscars ceremony?
The updated projected winners are below; the prediction pages will be available throughout the weekend.
See all Academy Award predictions
Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars
