Investor interest in MTN Nigeria’s shares surged in April 2025, fuelled by growing optimism that the country’s largest telecom operator will return to profitability in Q1 2025. The renewed confidence follows recent 50% price hikes, which analysts believe will significantly bolster the company’s margins and are expected by investors to begin reflecting in the company’s earnings this year.
On April 15, MTN Nigeria’s trading volume exceeded 11 million units, the highest single-day trading volume for the telco on the Nigerian Exchange. MTN is expected to publish its Q1 2025 financial results on April 29, one day before its annual general meeting. If the numbers show a profit, it will mark MTN’s first profitable Q1 since the naira’s steep devaluation in 2023, which depleted the company’s earnings.
MTN Nigeria’s shares are a key barometer of the country’s digital future. As the largest telecom operator in Nigeria, with over 50% market share, MTN is central in connecting tens of millions of Nigerians to voice, data, and digital services. Its stock performance reflects investor sentiment and affects the company’s ability to raise capital, invest in network infrastructure, and expand broadband access nationwide. To diversify revenue and strengthen its position in the home broadband market, MTN recently rebranded its fibre-to-the-home service from MTN Fibre Broadband to FibreX. This strategic move signals growth potential and may boost investor confidence.
“Investors are also anticipating the public offer MTN Nigeria announced on April 12, 2025,” said Tajudeen Ibrahim, director of research and strategy at Chapel Hill Denham. “Investors believe MTN Nigeria shares are extremely cheap despite the recovery of earnings in Q4.” Chapel Hill Denham has often been a key financial advisor and intermediary for MTN Nigeria’s capital market activities.
On April 12, MTN Nigeria announced plans for a second public share offering, aiming to reduce MTN Group’s stake from approximately 76% to 65% to increase local ownership. However, the company has not specified an exact date for this offering. The public offer is contingent upon MTN Nigeria returning to profitability and resuming dividend payments.
Currently valued at ₦5.1 trillion, MTN Nigeria is the fourth most capitalised stock on the NGX and was one of the most actively traded equities during the week of April 24. Its share price rose to ₦245, reflecting investor confidence in its turnaround strategy.
In contrast, Airtel Africa—the country’s second-largest telco and the most capitalised company on the NGX—has attracted less trading activity, despite increasing its service tariffs by 50%. Between January 17 and April 17, Airtel Africa recorded a modest trading volume of just 336,734 shares across 331 deals, averaging about 5,345 shares per day. Its highest daily volume came on April 7, with 188,074 shares traded.
Benedict Egwuchukwu, an investment researcher at Afrinvest, explained that Airtel Africa’s low trading activity is largely due to its status as an “illiquid stock”—one that trades infrequently and can be difficult to buy or sell without significantly affecting its price.
“The stocks are not easily available because of less demand and supply in the market,” Egwuchukwu said.
This scarcity is being further amplified by Airtel Africa’s ongoing $100 million share buy-back program, which aims to repurchase its shares over 12 months to boost shareholder value and streamline its capital structure. As shares are bought back and either cancelled or held in treasury, the number of shares available for public trading decreases, making the stock even more scarce.
In contrast, MTN Nigeria is considered a liquid stock, supported by a large base of active buyers and sellers and consistently high trading volumes, making it easier for investors to enter and exit positions without major price swings.
Despite its record activity in April, MTN Nigeria still ranked only 44th by trading volume on the NGX during the period. For context, Fidelity Bank, the exchange’s most traded stock, saw more than 388 million shares change hands in a single day. Still, the uptick in MTN Nigeria’s trading is a positive signal for the company as it looks to exit two years of losses.
In 2023 and 2024, MTN Nigeria reported steep losses primarily due to exchange rate volatility. In 2024, the company posted a ₦400.44 billion loss after tax—a 192% increase from the previous year, driven by ₦925 billion in foreign exchange losses. Nevertheless, the company’s revenue rose 36% year-on-year to ₦3.36 trillion, underscoring strong demand for its data and digital services.
MTN closed out 2024 on a stronger note, posting a ₦114.5 billion profit after tax in the fourth quarter. This return to profitability has boosted investor confidence, suggesting that the worst of its foreign exchange challenges may be behind it. Analysts now view MTN Nigeria as being on a stable trajectory toward sustained earnings growth and potentially resuming regular dividend payouts.
However, significant challenges remain. Inflation continues to rise, eroding consumer spending power, and millions more Nigerians are falling into poverty. According to the World Bank’s latest report, nearly 47% of the population lives below the national poverty line. For MTN, this growing economic hardship translates into a shrinking customer base with less disposable income, potentially dampening demand for its telecom services.
