A recent study analyzing 20 years of general aviation (GA) accidents has identified key factors that significantly impact survival rates, leading researchers to develop a GA Crash Survival Predictor.
“Numerous accidents occur with general aviation aircraft every year,” researchers noted in the introduction to the study. “To date, pre-emptive prediction of survival or death is impossible. The current study aims to identify significant factors elementary to predict survival after general aviation aircraft accidents.”
Despite a decline in recent years, the rate of GA accidents is substantially higher as compared with airline operations, the researchers point out. The number of accidents involving GA, documented by the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), decreased from 1,728 in 2001 to 1,085 accidents in 2020. However, the percentage of fatal outcomes remained unchanged at around 18%.
The research, published in Scientific Reports, suggests that fire, distance from an airport, flight phase, and time of year play critical roles in determining whether an accident will be fatal.
The study, conducted by researchers from Johannes Wesling University Hospital Minden and the University of Cologne in Germany, examined 1,595 GA accidents from 2000 to 2019 in the database of the German Federal Bureau of Aircraft Accident Investigation (BFU).
Using statistical modeling, they developed a scoring system to predict the likelihood of fatal outcomes — an innovation that could enhance emergency response and potentially save lives, according to the researchers.
What the Data Reveals
According to the study, accidents occurring more than six miles from an airport were significantly more likely to be fatal. That’s because pilots who crash farther from an airfield may face delayed rescue response times, worsening their chances of survival.
Another major factor was fire, which was present in nearly 25% of the analyzed accidents. Among crashes involving fire, 84.5% resulted in fatalities.
This finding underscores the importance of fire prevention measures, including proper fuel management, aircraft maintenance, and training to get out of an aircraft rapidly.
The flight phase also played a major role in survival odds.
While landing accidents are common, they have the highest survival rates, with 81% of pilots surviving.
However, accidents occurring during cruise flight were far deadlier, with a 75.7% fatality rate.
The study also found a seasonal trend: Accidents occurring in the last quarter of the year — October to December — were significantly more likely to be fatal. Researchers noted factors affecting this could be worsening weather conditions and reduced daylight hours, which leads to poorer visibility.
Taking all these factors into consideration, predictions of injury and survival probability can be made by search and rescue teams, assigning a point for each factor.
The information can also be used to improve flight safety in the future, according to the researchers.
Why This Matters for U.S. Pilots
Although the study focused on accidents in Germany, its findings align with trends observed in the United States. The NTSB reports that GA accidents remain a leading cause of aviation fatalities, with a fatality rate far higher than airline operations.
Also, the introduction of a GA Crash Survival Predictor could be a game-changer for emergency response teams, the researchers noted. By quickly assessing an accident’s risk level based on these factors, first responders may be able to prioritize rescue efforts more effectively.
Improving Safety: What Pilots Can Do
The study’s findings highlight several steps GA pilots can take to improve safety:
Enhance fire prevention: Conduct thorough pre-flight inspections, ensure proper fuel system maintenance, and be prepared for emergency evacuations.
Consider proximity to emergency landing sites: Avoid unnecessarily long flights over remote areas without backup landing options.
Prioritize training for cruise-phase emergencies: Since cruise flight accidents have a high fatality rate, pilots should regularly practice engine-out procedures and emergency landings.
Be extra cautious in late-year flights: Recognize the added risks of winter flying, including icing conditions, lower visibility, and pilot fatigue.
Looking Ahead
As aviation safety experts push for data-driven improvements, this study provides an opportunity for regulators, pilots, and emergency services to refine safety protocols, according to the researchers.
They also suggest that integrating their scoring system into emergency control centers and AI-assisted dispatch systems could optimize response times and improve survival rates.
For general aviation pilots, the message is clear: Understanding these risk factors and implementing proactive safety measures could mean the difference between life and death.
You can read the full study, “A new scoring system to predict fatal accidents in General Aviation and to facilitate emergency control center response,” at Nature.com.
