AMSTERDAM — Despite a surge of interest in Europe in establishing autonomy in space systems, there remains skepticism that one of the biggest efforts along those lines, a communications satellite constellation, will be viable.
European governments and companies signed contracts in December for the development of Infrastructure for Resilience, Interconnectivity and Security by Satellite (IRIS²), a constellation of satellites in medium and low Earth orbits that will provide secure connectivity and broadband services.
The consortium of companies working on IRIS², known as SpaceRISE, is in the middle of a one-year design phase for the constellation that will culminate in a “rendezvous” late this year that will confirm the project, said Stéphane Israël, former chief executive of launch services provider Arianespace and now a partner at Boston Consulting Group.
In a talk at the SmallSat Europe conference here May 27, he argued that IRIS² was essential for Europe in a time when SpaceX’s Starlink holds an increasingly dominant position in the market. “I’m totally convinced that IRIS² is a key opportunity for Europe,” he said. “It is really something we must do all together.”
“Europe needs IRIS² because we are in a moment of geopolitical disruption,” he said. “There is a new race for orbital dominance and there is a necessity for Europe not to be reliant on non-European capacity.”
Others at the conference echoed those concerns. “In the Ukraine war, we are dependent on communication by a privately owned communications system, the only one that is survivable right now, and it’s sometimes not easy to handle this guy who owns it,” said Martin Haunschild, business development manager for space/institutional affairs at Mynaric, referring Starlink and SpaceX’s chief executive, Elon Musk.
“We need independency and we have the strengths in Europe to build up a system that we need,” he said.
However, some in European industry are not convinced IRIS² is the right approach. “I think IRIS² is dead in the water, frankly,” said Sven Meyer-Brunswick, principal at venture capital fund Alpine Space Ventures. “It’s not a competitive program. It should have been started completely differently.”
He said Europe should have followed the approach the U.S. Space Force’s Space Development Agency is taking with its missile tracking and communications constellations, developing them in tranches and awarding contracts to multiple suppliers.
“The Space Development Agency is doing a phenomenal job deploying capabilities very cost efficiently and in a competitive way,” he said. “This is what should have happened with IRIS².”
Business case and financing
IRIS² is a public private partnership, with SpaceRISE providing 4.1 billion euros ($4.65 billion) of the overall 10.6-billion-euro cost of the constellation. At the conference, some investors were skeptical that the consortium will be able to raise that money.
Those doubts stem from uncertainty about the business case for the constellation. “It needs to be a business case that holds water. I don’t think it does,” said Daniel Biedermann, investment partner at NewSpace Capital. “Until there’s a different proposition on the table, I can’t see how a private investor will come into this.”
He concluded that there’s little commercial demand for IRIS². “It’s a sovereign public network.”
“We wouldn’t touch anything related to it,” said Meyer-Brunswick. “Any hope that private financing is stepping in to fund the remaining 40% is probably wishful thinking.”
Institutional investors say they’re more open to helping finance IRIS², but need more information about the system. “At this stage, we know nothing about the project, only what we hear about the space infrastructure,” said Sandrine Bedat, deputy head of the defense, shipping, space and telecom unit at export-credit agency BPI France. “Financing with private debt will be a challenge, but I think that lenders, export credit agencies, will be there when it will be the time to assess the project.”
She added that any role that BPI France plays in financing the constellation will depend on how French companies are involved. “Even if it is a European project, of course there is a French interest. If we are approached for supporting the project, if that’s eligible to one of our products, then yes, we would consider it.”
Advocates of IRIS² insist that the constellation can serve both commercial and government customers. “Europe has realized that it is very important to have a project of dual nature, public and private,” said Jean-Hubert Lenotte, director of strategies and resources at Eutelsat, one of the partners on SpaceRISE.
One issue with the constellation is the capacity it will have for commercial customers. “If you look at IRIS², it’s a couple hundred satellites,” said Alizee Acket-Goemaere, a manager at McKinsey & Company. When compared to Starlink, “the scale is just not the same.”
She also questioned if there was sufficient commercial demand in Europe for a satellite broadband system. “Our needs are not exactly the same in Europe,” she said, citing the prevalence of fixed and terrestrial mobile broadband. “Maybe a megaconstellation for internet B2C broadband is not what we need.”
Laurent Jaffart, director of connectivity and secure communications at the European Space Agency, argued that IRIS² will have technical advantages over other constellations, such as the use of 5G standards. “Yes, there will be less satellites, but we can be clever with less satellites,” he said. “This constellation will grow over time.”
IRIS² also faces the prospect of cost growth that could further complicate its financing. Israël said there is a gap between the public cost and current industry estimates of more than one billion euros.
He suggested that one way to cover the costs of IRIS² is through tapping into new initiatives to increase European defense spending, such as the 800-billion-euro EU Readiness program. “It’s a big question of how much will be dedicated to a space pillar and, in this space pillar, how much will be dedicated to IRIS²,” he said. “For obvious reasons, it would be highly legitimate that IRIS² benefits from part of this package.”
Roles for new entrants
SpaceRISE is led by three European satellite operators: SES, Eutelsat and Hispasat. Israël noted that SES will lead the medium Earth orbit segment, leveraging its experience with the O3b network, while Eutelsat will lead a high-LEO constellation given its experience with OneWeb. Hispasat will be responsible for a low-LEO, or very low Earth orbit (VLEO), element that would primarily be used for technology demonstration.
New entrants, like smallsat manufacturers, are pondering their role in IRIS². “The biggest opportunity we see is as a supplier of components and systems,” said Luis Gomes, chief executive of AAC Clyde Space.
He and other European smallsat manufacturers said on a panel at the conference that it’s still unclear what those opportunities will be. “The challenge in Europe is that we have to cooperate,” said Simon van den Dries, head of business development for space services at EnduroSat. There was a risk, he said, of spreading out the work on the constellation among too many companies, slowing things down.
SWISSto12, a Swiss manufacturer of satellite components and small GEO satellites, is also looking for a role in the constellation. Asked if there was a place for SWISSto12 in IRIS², Steve Collar, chairman of the board of the company, responded, “There should be.”
Collar, the former chief executive of SES, said he was familiar with the constellation from his time there, and believed “100%” there could be a role for SWISSto12 in IRIS². One key challenge, though, is that Switzerland is not part of the European Union, although it is a member of the European Space Agency. “In terms of the technologies and capabilities,” he said, “it would be criminal if we don’t find a way to enhance and make that initiative more compelling.”
That could be done by adding a GEO component to the constellation or through providing radio-frequency components to other satellites. He suggested the company could also play a role in providing some “coherence” to the various elements in medium and low Earth orbits.
“They’re not in any way integrated. It’s not one system,” he said, “It’s a risk we all see, it’s certainly a risk the Commission certainly sees, and it’s something I think we can help them with.”
