WASHINGTON — The U.S. Space Force is changing how it evaluates risk for launch missions, using tiered mission assurance standards that could expand opportunities for newer commercial providers.
Under the National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Phase 3 procurement strategy, the Space Force has adopted a tiered approach to “mission assurance” — a classification system that calibrates the amount of oversight required for each launch based on its risk profile and the importance of its payload. The framework has been in place since Phase 3 was unveiled last year, but recent task orders and public remarks by Space Force officials have brought new attention to how this change could lower the barrier to entry for emerging commercial players.
“Lane 1 gives us considerable flexibility with mission assurance based on the acceptable risk posture of the payload,” Brig. Gen. Kristin Panzenhagen, the Space Force’s program executive officer for Assured Access to Space, said during a call with reporters last week.
With a tiered mission assurance approach, NSSL Phase 3 Lane 1 creates opportunities for companies with medium-lift rockets that don’t qualify for Lane 2 but can still meet the needs of lower-mass NSSL missions.
Mission assurance is the government’s term for the elaborate safety protocols, design reviews, and third-party evaluations that have traditionally accompanied national security launches — measures aimed at preventing the catastrophic failure of missions carrying valuable and often irreplaceable satellites. While necessary for high-value payloads, those requirements have historically been so costly and time-consuming that only companies like SpaceX and ULA could reliably compete.
“Based on the risk tolerance of the payload, the government determines which amount of mission assurance is most appropriate for that mission,” Panzenhagen said.
Assessing mission risk
While Lane 2 of the NSSL program remains reserved for heavy-lift and high-stakes missions — where full-spectrum government oversight remains non-negotiable — Lane 1 allows companies to compete for launches with less stringent assurance requirements. That includes Tier 0 missions, which require no government oversight, and up to Tier 3, which involves some assurance protocols for missions that, while not critical, still carry meaningful risks.
Col. Doug Pentecost, who oversees the NSSL program, said this structure was explicitly designed to broaden the launch market.
“The tiered mission assurance system was created to open up the market to commercial launch players that don’t have certified vehicles but have demonstrated successful commercial launches,” he said.
For example, Tier 0 missions could include launching small satellites for proliferated constellations operated by the Space Development Agency or the National Reconnaissance Office. In these cases, failure risk is more tolerable because replacement satellites are already in the pipeline.
First high-tier Lane 1 mission will test the model
The next Lane 1 launch — of the second Weather System Follow-on Microwave (WSF-M) satellite — marks the first time a Tier 3 mission will be awarded under the new system. Unlike replaceable small sats, the WSF-M mission carries significant operational risk: it is the second and final satellite in a critical environmental monitoring program used to support military operations.
“That is going to be our first Tier 3 mission assurance mission,” Pentecost said.
To compete for this type of launch, commercial rockets will be subject to elevated scrutiny, including engineering reviews and independent testing—though still less rigorous than the exhaustive processes of Lane 2.
The new framework has drawn interest from several commercial launch providers that had previously found military contracts out of reach. Lane 1 contracts have already been awarded to SpaceX, ULA, Blue Origin, Rocket Lab and Stoke Space — though the latter two have yet to launch their NSSL-eligible rockets.
Rocket Lab, best known for its small Electron rocket, is building the larger Neutron vehicle for commercial launches and to compete in the NSSL program. CEO Peter Beck said the Space Force’s approach in the Lane 1 program is a long-overdue shift.
“It’s a great procurement solution,” Beck said. The government’s mission assurance requirements add significant cost to a launch mission, he added, noting that the new framework allows firms to compete based on commercial performance rather than costly compliance requirements.
He pointed to the now-defunct Virgin Orbit as a cautionary tale. In an effort to meet the government’s assurance standards, the company invested in elaborate tools and processes, including X-ray machines and ultrasound systems for its rockets — moves that ultimately proved financially unsustainable.
“I think that’s what killed Virgin Orbit,” said Beck, whose company acquired Virgin Orbit’s assets following its bankruptcy. “There is no way you can put that into your business and then still serve commercial customers viably.”
“There’s no level of oversight that’s going to reduce the fact that a launch company doesn’t want to fail,” he added. “We take every practical step to not fail.”
