WASHINGTON — Senior leaders of the U.S. Space Force said President Trump’s ambitious missile defense initiative known as Golden Dome is still in its initial planning phase, with next steps to be directed by the White House. They also warned that early cost estimates may drastically underestimate the final price tag due to the program’s unprecedented complexity.
“We’re still in the early planning of it, trying to think about it at a high level,” Gen. Chance Saltzman, chief of space operations, said May 15 at a Politico event. The Golden Dome initiative, directed by Trump in an executive order, aims to create a comprehensive shield protecting the United States against an array of missile threats, including ballistic, hypersonic and advanced cruise missiles.
Unlike traditional defense procurement, Saltzman explained, “You don’t buy Golden Dome. You orchestrate a program that includes a lot of programs that you have to stitch together in very technical ways.”
Cost concerns
When asked about a recent Congressional Budget Office report suggesting Golden Dome could exceed $500 billion, Saltzman expressed skepticism about any current estimates.
“I’ve been 34 years in this business, and I’ve never seen an early estimate that was too high,” said Saltzman. “It’s the nature of the business. I think that we don’t always understand the full level of complexity until you’re actually in execution, doing the detailed planning.”
He warned that “there’s going to be some additional funding that’s necessary” and acknowledged that “there’s always sticker shock, because space in these kinds of capabilities are exquisite, they are unique in the sense that there’s not a lot of market that would drive at a cost down.”
Some lawmakers have suggested even higher figures. Speaking earlier this week at an industry conference hosted by the Washington Times, Sen. Tim Sheehy (R-Mont.) predicted Golden Dome’s final cost would likely reach “trillions of dollars.”
Budget details forthcoming
Lt. Gen. Shawn Bratton, the Space Force’s deputy chief of operations for strategy, plans, programs and requirements, said an early glimpse into the potential cost will come in the Pentagon’s fiscal year 2026 budget request, which has not yet been released.
“We immediately started laying that in,” Bratton said regarding Golden Dome’s costs in the upcoming budget. “Did we get everything right? Certainly we didn’t,” he said at a Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies event.
Bratton noted that the Space Force coordinated with several other agencies and combatant commands on the budget request. The Pentagon’s cost accounting office and the White House Office of Management and Budget are “helping organize all the pieces,” he said.
“I’m excited to see how the budget lands,” Bratton added.
Technical challenges
A key component of Golden Dome would be space-based interceptors capable of neutralizing missiles during their boost phase — the initial ascent through Earth’s atmosphere immediately after launch, when missiles are traveling more slowly and on more predictable trajectories.
Speaking last month at the State of the Space Industrial Base conference in Albuquerque, New Mexico, Bratton called this the main technical challenge of Golden Dome, describing it as a “really hard thing to do… and we’re gonna do it or figure it out.”
Currently, about $25 billion for Golden Dome is being sought in a “reconciliation” spending bill proposed by Republican lawmakers that would add $150 billion to the Pentagon’s fiscal year 2025 budget.
Political hurdles
The initiative faces opposition from some Democratic lawmakers concerned about both cost and strategic implications.
“Golden Dome upsets the concept of deterrence, and we are not sure it’s going to work,” Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) said at the Politico event.
Sidestepping bureaucracy
Industry experts warn that traditional Pentagon procurement processes could doom the project given the administration’s desire for rapid development.
“I can absolutely guarantee you that if the Department of Defense tries to do this using the 5000 regulations and policies and the JCIDS process, it will fail. It will fail, and this administration has no patience for things that don’t go fast,” said Chris Bogdan, a retired U.S. Air Force lieutenant general and now executive vice president and leader of Booz Allen Hamilton’s space business. He spoke May 13 during a panel discussion at the Washington Times event.
Bogdan referenced the DoD 5000 series, the regulations governing Defense Department acquisition of new weapons systems, and JCIDS (Joint Capabilities Integration and Development System), which is how the military identifies needed capabilities before acquisition begins.
Industry observers speculate the administration may appoint a “czar” — possibly a four-star general — to oversee Golden Dome and coordinate the various agencies involved. Bogdan emphasized that whoever gets the job will need authority to bypass standard regulations “to make this happen quickly.”
Industry solutions emerging
Booz Allen, a technology advisory and consulting firm with significant interest in Golden Dome, has already unveiled a concept dubbed “Brilliant Swarms.” This would deploy hundreds of small satellites operating as an interconnected network powered by artificial intelligence and machine learning technology, serving dual purposes as both detection systems and “kill vehicles” that would de-orbit, target, and physically strike threats.
In an interview with SpaceNews, Bogdan explained that Brilliant Swarms would fill technology gaps in the current missile defense architecture rather than replace existing systems.
“The key to Golden Dome is taking the current ground-based missile defense system and filling the gaps with new systems,” he said. “A critical gap in our current missile defense system is defeating ballistic missiles early on, right after their launch, before countermeasures or multiple reentry vehicles are deployed, when things get harder, but the only way you can do that, timing wise, is from space. So you have to build a constellation of satellites that can track ballistic missiles from birth to death.”
Bogdan said Booz Allen is in discussions with dozens of companies across the space industry interested in supporting Brilliant Swarms. At the Space Symposium in Colorado Springs in April, more than 40 companies approached Booz Allen expressing interest.
“We are right now trying to figure out what is the best team we can put together to make this happen. That includes non traditionals, small businesses, small space companies, and defense OEMs,” he said.
Speed will be critical for any Golden Dome solution, Bogdan emphasized. “If you have a new solution for Golden Dome, if you’re not able to demonstrate it or show that it can do something within the first three to four years it may not see the light of day because the threats are rapidly advancing. And so we’ve done a lot of work on putting together a program plan so we can potentially demonstrate the ability to shoot down a ballistic missile within the first three to four years.”
