WASHINGTON — In a bold forecast about what lies ahead for the space industry, venture firm Space Capital predicts both Boeing and Airbus will divest their space divisions in 2025, marking a significant shift in the commercial space landscape.
According to Space Capital’s latest investment trends report released Jan. 23, these aerospace giants are struggling to maintain pace with the rapidly evolving space sector. “These divestitures by entrenched government contractors marks a pivotal moment in the space economy, as it changes the competitive landscape, establishes a new power broker system, and creates new opportunities and risks in the government’s extended capabilities in space,” the report states.
The prediction comes amid broader trends in the space industry, with Space Capital projecting 2025 to be “one of the most transformative years on record for the space economy.” This forecast is partially influenced by Elon Musk’s prominent position in the Trump administration, which Space Capital expects to maintain a “strongly pro-growth and anti-regulation” stance toward the industry.
Defense sector becomes key battleground
The report highlights increasing defense spending as a crucial factor shaping the industry’s future. Mounting concerns over China’s space capabilities, particularly its BeiDou navigation system’s growing influence, are driving U.S. initiatives like the adoption of alternative positioning, navigation and timing systems offered by commercial firms, and the Resilient Global Positioning Systems (R-GPS) program, which aims to strengthen GPS infrastructure through commercial partnerships.
An increased focus on defense is already evident in recent industry moves. Redwire, traditionally focused on space infrastructure, is set to acquire Edge Autonomy for $925 million, signaling a strategic pivot toward defense technology. Similarly, Voyager Technologies (formerly Voyager Space) has announced a restructuring to emphasize defense and national security operations ahead of a planned IPO.
The trend extends to other players in the space sector. Planet, an operator of imaging satellites, and satellite manufacturing startup K2 Space have both recently recruited former defense officials, indicating their intent to pursue more military contracts.
