Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Oscars Commentary (Updated: May 1, 2025): It might only be May 1, but if buzz is already building inside of a year that will be defined by high-wattage star power, bold auteur vision, and some major shake-ups.
Coming in hot is “Sinners,” the latest from writer-director Ryan Coogler, who continues to redefine mainstream cinema with genre-defying storytelling and undeniable cultural resonance. Backed by Warner Bros., the film has already proven a box office hit and is set for an IMAX re-release — the kind of campaign boost that can cement a film as a top-to-bottom contender.
There’s already been movement on the calendar front. Maggie Gyllenhaal’s “The Bride,” once expected to be a major player this year, has officially shifted to 2026. That delay clears the path for Guillermo del Toro’s “Frankenstein” from Netflix to dominate the conversation in its space — and gives the streamer a prime opportunity to steer the film to best picture status. With del Toro’s track record, and early word on the gothic adaptation already stirring anticipation, expect it to be a core title in every prediction list going forward.
Meanwhile, Focus Features is building one of the year’s most formidable slates. Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Bugonia” reunites the Oscar-winning director with his “Poor Things” collaborators Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons in another surreal, genre-tilted world. And Chloé Zhao, five years after her “Nomadland” win, returns with “Hamnet,” a sweeping adaptation of Maggie O’Farrell’s novel starring Jessie Buckley and Paul Mescal. These films signal Focus’ serious intent to land not just one, but potentially multiple best picture nods.
But perhaps the biggest headline of all: Daniel Day-Lewis is back with his son Ronan’s film “Anemone.”
The Cannes Film Festival, always a major launching pad for Oscar hopefuls, will feature Mescal in Oliver Hermanus’ “The History of Sound,” a gay romance co-starring Josh O’Connor, who also headlines Kelly Reichardt’s “The Mastermind.” Those two titles are among a dense competition lineup that includes films from Wes Anderson, Ari Aster, Julia Ducournau, Richard Linklater and others.
Cannes will also host several high-profile out-of-competition titles. Tom Cruise returns to the Croisette with “Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning,” while Spike Lee’s “Highest 2 Lowest” — starring Denzel Washington — is expected to be turn some heads. Jodie Foster also arrives with “Vie Privée,” a crime comedy from Rebecca Zlotowski that could sneak into the conversation if reception is strong.
At this stage, it’s still early days. We won’t debut charts until after Cannes hands out its Palme d’or.
All release dates, studios, and official credits are not final and subject to change.
*** = PREDICTED WINNER(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)
Best Picture
“Bugonia” (Focus Features)Yorgos Lanthimos, Ari Aster, Lars Knudsen, Emma Stone, Miky Lee, Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Jerry Kyoungboum Ko“Deliver Me From Nowhere” (20th Century Studios)Scott Stuber, Ellen Goldsmith-Vein, Scott Cooper, Eric Robinson “F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)Jerry Bruckheimer, Joseph Kosinski, Lewis Hamilton, Brad Pitt, Jeremy Kleiner, Dede Gardner, Chad Oman “Frankenstein” (Netflix)Guillermo del Toro, Gary Ungar, Scott Stuber, J. Miles Dale“Hamnet” (Focus Features) ***Pippa Harris, Liza Marshall, Sam Mendes, Steven Spielberg “Late Fame” (No U.S. Distribution)Pamela Koffler, Christine Vachon “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)Zinzi Coogler, Sev Ohanian, Ryan Coogler“Sentimental Value” (Neon)Maria Ekerhovd, Andrew Berenstsen Ottmar “The Smashing Machine” (A24)Dwayne Johnson, Benny Safdie, Eli Bush, David Koplan “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)Marc Platt
Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Director
Jon M. Chu“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) Ryan Coogler“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)Guillermo del Toro“Frankenstein” (Netflix)Joachim Trier“Sentimental Value” (Neon)Chloé Zhao ***“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Actor
Willem Dafoe ***“Late Fame” (No U.S. Distribution)Dwayne Johnson“The Smashing Machine” (A24)Michael B. Jordan“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)Jesse Plemons“Bugonia” (Focus Features)Jeremy Allen White“Deliver Me From Nowhere” (20th Century Studios)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Actress
Jessie Buckley ***“Hamnet” (Focus Features)Cynthia Erivo“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)Lucy Liu“Rosemead” (U.S. Distribution TBD)Julia Roberts“After the Hunt” (Amazon MGM Studios)June Squibb“Eleanor the Great” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Supporting Actor
Miles Caton“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)Oscar Isaac“Frankenstein” (Netflix)Paul Mescal“Hamnet” (Focus Features)Stellan Skarsgård ***“Sentimental Value” (Neon)Jeremy Strong“Deliver Me From Nowhere” (20th Century Studios)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt ***“The Smashing Machine” (A24)Ariana Grande“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)Kate Hudson“Song Song Blue” (Focus Features)Greta Lee“Late Fame” (U.S. Distribution TBD)Samantha Morton“Anemone” (Focus Features)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Casting
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) Robin D. Cook“Sentimental Value” (Neon) Avy Kaufman“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***Francine Maisler“Wake Up Dead Man” (Netflix) Mary Vernieu“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) Tiffany Little Canfield, Bernard Telsey
Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Original Screenplay
“Anemone” (Focus Features)Daniel Day-Lewis, Ronan Day-Lewis“Eternity” (A24) Pat Cunnane“Jay Kelly” (Netflix) Noah Baumbach, Emily Mortimer“Sentimental Value” (Neon) ***Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)Ryan Coogler
Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Adapted Screenplay
“Bugonia” (Focus Features) Will Tracy (based on “Save the Green Planet!” by Jang Joon-hwan)“Deliver Me From Nowhere” (20th Century Studios) Scott Cooper (based on “Deliver Me from Nowhere: The Making of Bruce Springsteen’s Nebraska” by Warren Zanes)“Frankenstein” (Netflix)Guillermo del Toro (based on “Frankenstein” by Mary Shelley)“Hamnet” (Focus Features) ***Chloé Zhao (based on the novel by Maggie O’Farrell)“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) Winnie Holzman, Dana Fox (based on the characters by L. Frank Baum and the novel by Gregory Maguire)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Animated Feature
“Elio” (Pixar)Domee Shi, Adrian Molina, Madeline Sharafian“Endless Cookie” (No U.S. Distribution)Seth Scriver, Peter Scriver“In Your Dreams” (Netflix) ***Alex Woo, Erik Benson“The Magnificent Life of Marcel Pagnol” (Sony Pictures Classics)Sylvain Chomet“Zootopia 2” (Walt Disney Pictures) Jared Bush, Byron Howard
Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Production Design
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)Dylan Cole, Ben Procter, Vanessa Cole“Frankenstein” (Netflix) Tamara Deverell, Shane Vieau“Hamnet” (Focus Features) Fiona Crombie, Ruthie Falconer“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) Hannah Bleachler, Monique Champagne“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***Nathan Crowley, Lee Sandales
Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Cinematography
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.) Claudio Miranda“Frankenstein” (Netflix)Dan Laustsen“Hamnet” (Focus Features) ***Lukasz Zal“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) Autumn Durald Arkapaw“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)Alice Brooks
Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Costume Design
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) Kate Hawley“Hamnet” (Focus Features) Malgosia Turzanska“Kiss of the Spider Woman” (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions)Colleen Atwood“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)Ruth E. Carter“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***Paul Tazewell
Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Film Editing
“Deliver Me From Nowhere” (20th Century Studios) Pamela Martin“Frankenstein” (Netflix)Evan Schiff“Hamnet” (Focus Features) Chloé Zhao“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***Michael P. Shawver“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) Myron Kerstein
Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Makeup and Hairstyling
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) “Mother Mary” (A24)“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)“The Smashing Machine” (A24)“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***
Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Sound
“Deliver Me From Nowhere” (20th Century Studios) “F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.) “Mission Impossible – The Final Reckoning” (Paramount Pictures)“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Visual Effects
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios) ***“The Fantastic Four: First Steps” (Marvel Studios)“How to Train Your Dragon” (Universal Pictures)“Superman” (DC Studios)“Tron: Ares” (Walt Disney Pictures)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Original Score
“After the Hunt” (Amazon MGM Studios)Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross“Bugonia” (Focus Features)Jerskin Fendrix“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.) Hans Zimmer“Frankenstein” (Netflix) Alexandre Desplat“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***Ludwig Göransson
Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Original Song
“Diane Warren: Relentless” (Greenwich Entertainment) “Dear Me” by Diane Warren“The Phoenician Scheme” (Focus Features) Unknown possible song“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)“Sinners” by Rod Wave“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***“Untitled Elphaba Song” by Stephen Schwartz and Cynthia Erivo“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) “Untitled Glinda Song” by Stephen Schwartz
Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Documentary Feature
“Architecton” (A24)“Cutting Through Rocks” (U.S. Distribution TBD) ***“Endless Cookie” (U.S. Distribution TBD)“The Perfect Neighbor” (Netflix)“Selena y Los Dinos” (U.S. Distribution TBD)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
