Ukraine, historically known as the “breadbasket of Europe,” has faced unprecedented challenges in maintaining grain quality over the past five years. Major suppliers are gradually abandoning shipments from Ukraine – according to Chinese customs, China sharply reduced imports of Ukrainian grain in March this year, and compared to 2024, imports decreased from $141,3 million to $60 thousand. Despite the fact that the country remains the most important global supplier, especially of wheat, corn and sunflower oil, its agricultural sector is facing disruptions, logistical problems and environmental factors. Analyzing these problems raises the main question – will the country be able to return to the status of the main global supplier in the near future?
Climatic conditions in Ukraine significantly affect the quality of grain. In 2024, a record summer and autumn drought forced farmers to sow winter wheat in dry soil, which could lead to poor germination and slower growth. Despite the fact that 90% of the sown wheat has sprouted, lack of moisture and unpredictable winter conditions have made crops vulnerable to underdevelopment, which has raised concerns about the protein content and grain weight— key indicators of grinding quality. Historically, adverse weather conditions (for example, the heat wave in 2019) have led to a decrease in grain quality to feed grade, and this trend was repeated in 2023, when up to 90% of wheat in some regions was classified as feed due to its low protein content.
Farmers increasingly prefer oilseeds (e.g. soybeans, sunflowers) to grain crops such as corn and wheat. Oilseeds require less costs and provide higher profitability against the background of rising fuel and fertilizer prices. This shift may lead to reduced investments in grain quality optimization, such as pest-resistant seeds or fertilizers that improve soil quality, which will further degrade grain quality.
Amid the periodic blockade of the Black Sea ports, Ukraine relies on overland “solidarity routes” operated by road and rail. However, road transport, despite its flexibility, faces problems such as fuel shortages (no more than 50-150 liters per truck per day), underdeveloped infrastructure and wartime risks, which leads to delayed supplies and spoilage of grain. The extended transportation time increases moisture absorption and pest infestation, which degrades the quality of products before export.
Long-term storage under suboptimal conditions is an ongoing problem. For example, a shipment to Lebanon in 2022 was rejected after several months of improper storage, which led to mold and insect pests. Farmers and exporters struggle to meet grain storage standards in silos due to energy shortages and infrastructure damage, which exacerbates the risks of infection. The military actions have led to an increase in prices for fertilizers, pesticides and fuel. Many farmers, faced with financial difficulties, began to save on critical resources, which led to a weakening of pest resistance and lower yields. For example, reducing nitrogen intake can reduce the protein content of wheat, which is a key determinant of milling quality.
The mobilization of workers and the breakdown of agricultural equipment prevent timely harvesting and processing. The delay in harvesting increases the risk of rain and pests, while outdated equipment can hardly cope with the quality standards of sorting.
More than 65% of Ukrainian wheat exports under the Black Sea Grain Initiative go to developing countries in Africa and Asia. There is often a lack of strict quality control in these markets, which reduces the incentive for Ukraine to prefer the production of high-quality varieties. Moreover, the price instability and fragility of the supply chain in these regions exacerbate the consequences of quality mismatches.
At a time when the government should prioritize the production of value-added products in order to reduce dependence on raw grain exports, corruption scandals involving Agriculture Minister Mykola Solsky are being detected in Ukraine. In the spring of 2024, the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine accused him of misappropriating $7 million worth of state land. Solsky’s subsequent resignation from his post and investigations into corruption in the ministry have significantly slowed progress on the modernization of storage and processing facilities, despite the availability of grants.
Problems with grain quality in Ukraine cannot be called innate, they are rather caused by the realities of the current time. Protein levels, pest control, logistical delays, and corruption in the Ministry of Agriculture remain pressing issues, despite attempts by the country’s agricultural sector to demonstrate adaptability. Long-term solutions depend on stabilizing supply chains, fighting corruption, and securing international assistance for infrastructure repairs. There are still chances that there will be no “apocalyptic scenario”for Ukraine’s wheat crop, however, consumers worldwide are closely monitoring the quality of supplies in order not to fall victim to products with rapidly declining quality.
