In a March 2024 flight test, Stratolaunch’s Roc aircraft took off from California’s Mojave Spaceport and, after reaching its designated position off the California coast, released its payload, the Talon-A test vehicle, designed to test hypersonic flight profiles.
Stratolaunch celebrated a successful test but remained tight-lipped about who would use the hypersonic test vehicle. Those customers have since emerged: the United States Air Force and the Pentagon’s Missile Defense Agency.
Commercial launch providers like Stratolaunch pivoting to defense work is a growing trend. With commercial satellite launches increasingly dominated by large providers like SpaceX, some launch startups have struggled to secure enough business. Meanwhile, defense contracts promise a new revenue stream, particularly as the Pentagon seeks to ramp up hypersonic testing.
“Several small launch startups initially bet on winning deals with megaconstellations, but those deals have largely gone to larger rockets. Now, these companies are shifting to hypersonic testing where there’s a clear need,” said Caleb Henry, director of research at the market intelligence firm Quilty Space.
According to estimates by Quilty Space, hypersonic flight testing is a $6 billion to $7 billion per year market. It’s why Stratolaunch and other commercial space companies are now competing in this sector.
“They had a technology in search of a business model, and now they’ve found a market that works for them,” Henry said of Stratolaunch. “The DoD gets to leverage private investment, and companies get a steady revenue stream. It’s a win-win.”
Stratolaunch, founded by Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen in 2011, originally set out to compete in the commercial space sector by launching rockets into orbit from the air. The centerpiece of its operation is Roc, the world’s largest aircraft by wingspan at 385 feet and designed to air-launch payloads. However, the company struggled financially after Allen’s death in 2018. A private equity firm in 2019 acquired Stratolaunch and shifted its focus to hypersonic flight testing, a move that aligned with growing military demand.
New ways to accelerate hypersonic tests
As China and Russia push ahead with their hypersonic missile programs, the Pentagon faces mounting pressure to accelerate its own development efforts. The Defense Department’s response: a new strategy focused on conducting more frequent but targeted tests of specific components or subsystems.
Hypersonic systems — whether missiles, glide vehicles, or aircraft — operate in an environment where temperatures exceed 3,000 degrees Fahrenheit and aerodynamic forces are extreme. These vehicles travel at speeds exceeding Mach 5, creating unique physics challenges that computer models alone cannot fully replicate.
Traditional testing relies on comprehensive “full-up” flight tests that evaluate every component of a hypersonic weapon system simultaneously — from the booster rocket to the flight vehicle, guidance systems and payload.
These end-to-end tests, while valuable for validating complete systems, are expensive at about $100 million per flight and complex to orchestrate, limiting them to once or twice per year. An example of these full-up demonstrations was a December flight of an experimental hypersonic glide vehicle built by defense contractor Leidos that launched from a Lockheed Martin rocket booster at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida, a test in support of a next-generation joint missile development by the U.S. Army and U.S. Navy.
The new approach calls for more frequent and less expensive tests. So rather than testing everything at once, engineers might focus on evaluating a new thermal protection system, testing a guidance sensor, or validating a particular aerodynamic design. These focused tests can be conducted at a fraction of the cost of a full-system test.
A program known as Multi-Service Advanced Capability Hypersonics Test Bed (MACH-TB) — led by DoD’s Test Resource Management Center in partnership with the Naval Surface Warfare Center — aims to build a scalable infrastructure for more frequent hypersonic flight testing.
“Leveraging commercial launch services allows our nation to affordably test components early and frequently, accelerating hypersonic development,” said George Rumford, director of the Test Resource Management Center.
The MACH-TB program was initiated in 2022 in response to China’s and Russia’s advanced hypersonic systems developments, with the goal to address the urgent need for affordable and frequent hypersonic flight testing. The program has evolved through two phases: MACH-TB 1.0 validated testbed concepts and MACH-TB 2.0 focuses on transitioning to operational flight capabilities.
Under MACH-TB 1.0, with Leidos as the prime contractor, several flight tests were performed using commercial rockets like Rocket Lab’s HASTE (Hypersonic Accelerator Suborbital Test Electron) and Stratolaunch’s Talon-A. The program transitioned to MACH-TB 2.0 in late December, with Kratos Defense & Security Solutions awarded a $1.45 billion contract to run the program.
Michael Johns, senior vice president of Kratos, said the next phase of MACH-TB is about conducting more frequent, lower-cost hypersonic tests. “Rather than doing $100 million test events, you do $5 to $10 million test events. And rather than launching once or twice a year, you launch 40 or 50 times a year,” he told SpaceNews.
The program relies on experimental drones and glide bodies to test hypersonic technologies using existing booster systems. Instead of full-scale weapons tests, it breaks down complex aerodynamic challenges into smaller, more manageable experiments. Companies participating in MACH-TB include Leidos, Rocket Lab, Stratolaunch, Firefly Aerospace and others, as well as academic partners like the University of Minnesota and Purdue University.
Rocket Lab in November conducted a MACH-TB test flight using HASTE, a version of its Electron rocket that launched from the company’s pad at NASA’s Wallops Flight Facility in Virginia. The mission was the first of four launches the Rocket Lab will perform under a contract with Leidos for hypersonic test flights.
Johns emphasized that MACH-TB will not replace traditional end-to-end tests but will supplement them. “If we’re going to develop the most advanced technologies, we need to test them aggressively. Other countries are putting a tremendous amount of money into their test infrastructure, and the U.S. is starting to do that too.”
Reentry capsules as test platforms
The Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL), meanwhile, is exploring commercial reentry capsules as another means of testing hypersonic technologies. These capsules, designed to endure the intense heat and pressure of atmospheric reentry, offer another way to study hypersonic flight conditions.
One startup in this sector of the market is Varda Space Industries. The company is working with AFRL under a $48 million contract to use its W-Series reentry capsules for hypersonic testing. Varda’s W-2 mission landed in Australia on Feb. 28, completing the company’s second mission designed to collect critical data for military hypersonic research and NASA’s thermal protection systems.
Another startup, Inversion Space, launched its own reentry capsule in October. The company is developing Arc, a reusable capsule designed for cargo delivery, with a first flight planned for 2026. The company last year won a $71 million contract jointly funded by the Space Force, AFRL and private investors to advance the development of its reentry capsule. While the award is not explicitly for hypersonic testing, it signals that DoD sees these capsules as valuable for understanding hypersonic glide vehicle capabilities, particularly given China’s advancements in the field.
Col. Aaron Tucker, chief of AFRL’s High-Speed Systems Division, said his organization is “excited for the opportunity to work with commercial companies who share our goal of low-cost, high-tempo access to the hypersonic flight environment.”
“Hypersonic flight data are particularly valuable to validate digital engineering models of reusable aircraft as we advance the state of the art in durability, power and thermal management,” he said. “Validated digital models accelerate our ability to transition hypersonic capability to the warfighter.”
Defense Innovation Unit also in the game
The Defense Innovation Unit (DIU), a Pentagon outpost based in Silicon Valley, is another key player contributing to the Pentagon’s hypersonic testing campaign. DIU in 2022 started the Hypersonic and High-Cadence Airborne Testing (HyCAT) program focused on dramatically increasing test frequency while lowering costs.
“Right now, we test hypersonic systems once a year. We need to be testing them weekly,” said Ric Mommer, head of DIU’s commercial space engagement.
HyCAT’s first major agreement is with Australian startup Hypersonix Launch Systems, which is developing a 3D-printed hypersonic drone called DART AE. The vehicle is scheduled for a Rocket Lab suborbital launch later this year.
While the vision of conducting up to 50 flight tests annually won’t materialize overnight, the Pentagon is laying the groundwork for this increased tempo.
Johns said the MACH-TB program is building out the necessary infrastructure and teams while working to streamline processes that were designed for much less frequent testing.
The program will continue to expand, he said, and there are plans to onboard more commercial partners as new capabilities emerge.
This article first appeared in the March 2025 issue of SpaceNews Magazine with the title “A pivot to defense, then to hypersonics.”
