The SAG Awards are shaping up to be a showdown between some of Hollywood’s biggest comeback stories and the next generation of breakout stars.
On one side are the resurgence narratives — like lead contenders Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist”) and Demi Moore (“The Substance”). They’re joined by supporting nominees Edward Norton (“A Complete Unknown”) and Zoe Saldaña (“Emilia Pérez”), who many feel are overdue for recognition. On the other side are Hollywood’s rising stars — the fresh faces poised to define the industry’s future. Think Timothée Chalamet and Mikey Madison in the lead races, with Kieran Culkin and Ariana Grande gaining traction in supporting roles.
Brody, now 51, became the youngest best actor Oscar winner for his tour de force performance in “The Pianist” (2002). But after that early triumph, his career took an uneven path, and he didn’t ride the momentum to further Oscar glory. Now, his critically acclaimed turn as architect László Tóth in Brady Corbet’s historical epic “The Brutalist” is the kind of second act Hollywood swoons for: the comeback.
Moore, 62, knows that storyline well. Despite a storied career that began with the Brat Pack and led to hits like “Ghost” (1990), she never landed in Oscar territory. Enter “The Substance,” where she plays an actress-turned-exercise guru in a meta role that mirrors her real-life trajectory (minus the fearsome monster at the end). Hollywood may have counted her out, but as recent Oscar wins for Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”) and Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) prove, the comeback narrative is one of the strongest an awards campaign arsenal can have.
Of course, the Oscars also love an up-and-comer, particularly one on the cusp of superstardom. Just ask Jennifer Lawrence, who won in 2013 for “Silver Linings Playbook” at 22, beating French screen legend Emmanuelle Riva (“Amour”), or then-32-year-old Eddie Redmayne, whose transformative turn in “The Theory of Everything” pushed him past veteran Michael Keaton (best picture winner “Birdman”) in 2015. Chalamet, who channels Bob Dylan in James Mangold’s “A Complete Unknown,” has already shown his range — from “Call Me by Your Name” (2017), which yielded his first Oscar nomination, to blockbuster franchise “Dune.” His career is the dream scenario for hopeful actors doggedly sending out self-tapes: indie cred, commercial success and now, a serious shot at awards glory. Worth noting: Even if Chalamet were to pull off a SAG win, with Oscar voting already closed, his chances of winning at the Dolby remain slim. Since the inception of the SAG Awards in 1994, only six actors have won the Oscar with SAG as their sole major precursor — and none of them were in lead actor. The exclusive club includes Susan Sarandon (“Dead Man Walking”), Robin Williams (“Good Will Hunting”), Michael Caine (“The Cider House Rules”), Halle Berry (“Monster’s Ball”), Morgan Freeman (“Million Dollar Baby”) and Jamie Lee Curtis (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”).
Meanwhile, Madison, Culkin and Grande represent different shades of rising Hollywood power. Madison’s electric performance in “Anora” is a true discovery, while Culkin (“A Real Pain”) is riding his post- “Succession” heat with a blended career in movies and TV. And Grande, better known as a pop star, could pull off a Jennifer Hudson-style win for “Wicked.”
SAG voters love a populist pick. Just look at ensemble winners with starry casts like “The Trial of the Chicago 7” (2020) or blockbusters like last year’s champ, “Oppenheimer” (2023). But every so often, SAG sets the stage for Oscar success even if voters aren’t familiar with the actors’ names — just ask “Parasite” (2019) and “CODA” (2022), both of which took home SAG’s ensemble award before winning best picture.
Which brings us to the game changer: “Anora.” The cast is largely composed of Russian and Armenian actors, but if Sean Baker’s low-budget indie takes SAG’s top prize, history suggests the race is over, especially given its PGA and DGA victories. But watch out for “Wicked,” which leads the pack with five nods, tied for the most in history. Safe bet? “Wicked” wins at least one.
SAG could bring new faces to the stage, but let’s be honest — it isn’t the last word on Oscar season. Final Oscar voting closes on Feb. 18 — two days before SAG wraps — so while the winners can offer insight, they won’t hold direct influence. May the best actor win.
Kristen Bell will host the 31st annual Screen Actors Guild Awards, streaming live on Netflix on Feb. 23 at 5 p.m. PT.
The final SAG predictions in both film and television categories are below. The final Oscar predictions will be revealed next week.
See all Academy Award predictions
Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars
Universal Pictures
Cast in a Motion Picture
Will Win: “Wicked” (Universal Pictures)Could Win: “Anora” (Neon); “Conclave” (Focus Features)Should Have Been Nominated: “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
Male Actor in a Leading Role
Will Win: Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)Could Win: Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave” (Focus Features); Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist” (A24); Should Have Been Nominated: Sebastian Stan, “A Different Man” (A24)
Female Actor in a Leading Role
Will Win: Demi Moore, “The Substance” (Mubi)Could Win: Mikey Madison, “Anora” (Neon); Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked” (Universal Pictures)Should Have Been Nominated: Fernanda Torres, “I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Will Win: Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)Could Win: Edward Norton, “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures); Yura Borisov, “Anora” (Neon)Should Have Been Nominated: Brian Tyree Henry, “The Fire Inside” (Amazon MGM Studios)
Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Will Win: Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)Could Win: Ariana Grande, “Wicked” (Universal Pictures); Monica Barbaro, “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)Should Have Been Nominated: Michele Austin, “Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street)
Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Will Win: “Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios)Could Win: “The Fall Guy” (Universal Pictures); “Wicked” (Universal Pictures)Should Have Been Nominated: “Monkey Man” (Universal Pictures)
Ensemble in a Drama Series
Will Win: “Shōgun” (FX)Could Win: “Slow Horses” (Apple TV+); “The Diplomat” (Netflix)Should Have Been Nominated: “Fallout” (Prime Video)
Ensemble in a Comedy Series
Will Win: “Hacks” (HBO/Max)Could Win: “Abbott Elementary” (ABC); “The Bear” (FX)Should Have Been Nominated: “What We Do in the Shadows” (FX)
Male Actor in a Drama Series
Will Win: Hiroyuki Sanada, “Shōgun” (FX)Could Win: Jeff Bridges, “The Old Man” (FX); Eddie Redmayne, “The Day of the Jackal” (Peacock)Should Have Been Nominated: Jake Gyllenhaal, “Presumed Innocent” (Apple TV+)
Female Actor in a Drama Series
Will Win: Anna Sawai, “Shōgun” (FX)Could Win: Kathy Bates, “Matlock” (CBS); Allison Janney, “The Diplomat” (Netflix)Should Have Been Nominated: Maya Erskine, “Mr. and Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video)
Male Actor in a Comedy Series
Will Win: Jeremy Allen White, “The Bear” (FX)Could Win: Adam Brody, “Nobody Wants This” (Netflix); Ted Danson, “A Man on the Inside” (Netflix)Should Have Been Nominated: Paul W. Downs, “Hacks” (HBO/Max)
Female Actor in a Comedy Series
Will Win: Jean Smart, “Hacks” (HBO/Max)Could Win: Quinta Brunson, “Abbott Elementary” (ABC); Liza Colón-Zayas, “The Bear” (FX)Should Have Been Nominated: Kathryn Hahn, “Agatha All Along” (Disney+)
Male Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series
Will Win: Colin Farrell, “The Penguin” (HBO/Max)Could Win: Andrew Scott, “Ripley” (Netflix); Richard Gadd, “Baby Reindeer” (Netflix)Should Have Been Nominated: Josh Andres Rivera, “American Sports Story: Aaron Hernandez” (FX)
Female Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series
Will Win: Jessica Gunning, “Baby Reindeer” (Netflix)Could Win: Jodie Foster, “True Detective: Night Country” (HBO/Max); Cristin Milioti, “The Penguin” (HBO/Max)Should Have Been Nominated: Sofía Vergara, “Griselda” (Netflix)
Stunt Ensemble in a Comedy or Drama Series
Will Win: Could Win: Should Have Been Nominated:
SAG Life Achievement Award
Jane Fonda
